Hi DaveinPerth,I was going to start a post last week with a...

Hi DaveinPerth,

I was going to start a post last week with a similar theme, but you beat me to it. Below are my 'notes', thinking over the weekend that none of the options are decent ones, as chaos would reign....

Euro will be held up. CHF rumours about raising their intervention ceiling made for a 1c spike friday night.

Also a big open on fx this morning, 1c move on EUR GBP and AUD. Not quite sure what happened over the weekend to justify.... perhaps just the world not ending yet...?

:)




__________

My thoughts:

Short the Euro
Seems obvious huh, but there are numerous reasons why this won’t work at the moment – least of which being that it is not going down just yet! Swiss central bank have pegged the CHF to the Euro so there is plenty of money buying Euros at present. EURJPY also holding EURUSD up through their intervention efforts.
Are there better options to have exposure to Euro downside?
Does anyone think the Euro will even survive in current form???

Buying Gold
Well perhaps, but only after the current gartley is completed, lol. I have been short gold from $1770 expecting perhaps another $100 down yet (but tight stops). Ironic given 90% of my shares are a small gold explorer.
I fully expect that at some point ($1600 ? $1535??) we will see a big move up again but not yet a goldbug.

Long the VIX
Not sure about this one, or even if it is possible to do.
A lagging rather than leading option?

Short the Aussie
AUD is closely linked to commodities, to gold, to the global growth outlook, as a proxy to China, and as a great carry trade option. It moves hard, and falls hard when sentiment changes.
Look at the AUD in GFC #1, huge falls. This time around, it seems like the world knows everything is going to hit the fan, yet we’re still just below parity.

Short oil or commodities
Again, like the AUD, if global growth goes to the wall, then commodity prices will fall.

Buy and hold selected shares
I think we can safely discard this strategy….at least on this website :)

Blue chips
Did any ASX blue chips come through the GFC at the same level as at the start of the GFC? Have they returned to similar levels since? My impression is no, but that might not hold across the board.


Some questions:
In GFC #1, was any stock on the ASX safe ??? Is there any sector that would be immune?
MF Global have hit the wall. Others have fallen over time (Sonray etc). Safety of trading accounts might be an issue if the financial world implodes. Is it worth sticking to brokers like Commsec that may not have the bells and whistles, but are pretty much 99% safe…?

Happy to hear thoughts, suggestions, successful trades during last GFC, whatever…!

:)