Originally posted by True_Value
I'm not a macro guy as I think it's a waste of time but just stick to the relevant data. US retail sales in the US and Australia are strong. More importantly, online sales continue grow around 15-20% p.a. in our key markets (ANZ & US). Unemployment rates are low, however real wage growth is a well known issue here in Australia.
Yes, during recessions the metrics will reverse and it will adversely impact us to an extent which is unknown with any certainty in forecasts. I gain comfort with the growing geographical expansion and expansion into different verticals. A big part target market for APT is beauty which has grown interrupted in Aus for the past 10 years (yes during a favourable economic backdrop). As the MD of L'Oreal Australia recently said "I've been in markets where there have been recessions and even in a recession the beauty market continues to grow.I've been in countries where unemployment is high [and] you'd imagine women wouldn't have money to buy beauty products but on the other hand they have to go to work interviews or they just want to look good for their own self esteem". Yes, this is only one example, but my point is that it shouldn't be a "everything is over" mentality.
To the point around the pricing of APT, I disagree. It's pricing in some success, but not massive success. If 5m people in the USA use it 8x per year with an average basket value of A$150, the stock should be worth somewhere around the vicinity of $30 (including Australia but not considering the UK or other markets). 5m people is only 1.5% of their population. Getting the 5m people is reliant on APT continuing to onboard relevant retailers with the early signs being encouraging. This is a key thing to look out for. Getting the retailer on board in the first place is the hardest part, once they're on, it is easier to keep them on. APT are pricing their product cheaply in the US to take advantage of the first mover advantage but also to crack that major obstacle. Once they are on, and the retailers see first hand the results it delivers and as a result, they shouldn't have an issue with the price increases that I'm assuming will come.
Too many punters listen way too closely to the experts on TV. There is no better way to lose money than to listen and act on their views as a consensus. As mentioned in the above post, most of it is noise.
Said the person offering yet another opinion on a discussion forum which is littered with opinions.
Here's a little secret. Nobody knows what is going to happen but a stock going up in price is likely to continue until it doesn't. That's where the smartypants jump off.
Here's another secret: You can only make money if the stock price is going up irrespective of research and opinions. Opinions can be wrong but the share price isn't because it is what it is.
