econorama for today, page-38

Jaolsa,

I had read the report by fund manager John P. Hussman, Ph.D. which you posted.

His claim that the true history of the golden cross is bronze at best and like rolling the dice is a big claim and in my opinion, does not fit reality.

As you yourself once mentioned in a previous post Jaolsa, one mans outer square can be another mans inner circle, (or something similar). i.e. A matter of how you look at it.

May I suggest that sceptics, (and we all should be), look at the SPX chart for the past 30 years rather than Hussmans’ 40 years.

Incredible charts show the 200 sma crossed down over the 50 mva (golden cross) only 9 times in the 30 years. On my count, after each crossover, (no exceptions), the index rose by an average annualised 17% before the “Death cross” altered the trend. The average period of the rises was 25 months by my calcs, (the shortest period 15 months, and the longest 44 months).

The fact that every major index, (the Dow the only exception), has crossed in recent days is good enough for me to put my money on 30 years of history.

As the man with the Ph.D. says in his own report, (quote), “In short, beware of analysts bearing indicators that all is suddenly well, and check their facts.”

I would appreciate any on this thread disproving my own analysis as it will save me and others banking on the golden cross a lot of money.

Cheers and thanks for raising the subject.