Additionally, Bells hold 20mil options expiring in 22 months at...

Additionally, Bells hold 20mil options expiring in 22 months at 3.3c, as a payment for completing the raise.

I suspect that this mob doesn’t work for free. Having seen the nature They have every intention of seeing the at or above 3.3c come expiry. They also hold indirectly, perhaps on behalf of their clients, close to 14% of total shares on issue post raise. With that much power the ability to influence market conditions become far easier.

Pitt Street Research published an analysis piece in September 2021, with forecasts up until FY24. Worth a look and comparison v current results. But to summarise:

Forecast v Actual FY23
Revenue: 12m v 15.4m
EBITDA: (0.3m) v 1.6m
NPBT: 0.0 v 0.5m
Cash: 0.4m v 2.5m

FY24 Forecast v My Forecast
Revenue: 20.2m v 22m
EBITDA: 3.8m v 3.8m
NPBT: 3.2m v 2.5m
Cash: 1.8m v 5.5m (inclusive of 4m raise).

They provided a base case valuation of $104mil Market Cap, Bull Case valuation of 139mil. Translated to current SOI, this gives their updated Base Price of 8c and Bull case at 10.8c. Given that current conditions are exceeding previous forecasts, one would suspect that ECS remains substantially undervalued.


No wonder Mr Keach tipped off his former employer about what steps to take to rip off current ECS holders to make some profit. There’s clearly too much upside to ignore.