Ecuador & the Lumina Gold Aquistion

Hi Guy's just wanted to start a thread on the situation in Ecuador.
Lumina's new owners "CMOC" have a suite of Mines across the globe, the recently disposed of Northparkes Copper/gold Mine to Evolution EVN.AX & now purchased of Cangrejos project in Equador, this will be their main gold asset and they also have a metals trading arm IXM which is a major player in copper. CMOC is also the world largest Molybdenum, Tungsten & Niobium Producers .

What can Challenger bring to the table, CEL have a higher grade starter pit, next door to CMOC's Cangrejos project of about 1.2Moz @1.2 g/t which is 50-60% better grade than what the Cangrejos project will be starting at IMO. CMOC could be looking to buy out our Ecuador Project to capitalise on those early cash flows & also to extend life of mine. CMOC have a history of large projects as seen below , plus comparisons.
Keep in mind our Ecuador project has Mo Cu Credits to supplement their market dominance in those metals.

As people would know CEL recently increased from 4.5 to 9.1 Moz, Significant upside remains based on drilling 5 of the 15 major anomalies, with all 13 anomalies drilled returning mineralisation.

Premium High-Grade Core Enhances Economics: The resource includes a higher-grade core of 2.1 Moz @ 1.0g/t AuEq, including 1.2 Moz @ 1.2g/t AuEq, offering potential for early-stage production and strong cash flow generation which will increase CMOC early cashflow if they are looking at producing 370,000oz P/A & could easily pay back potential Acquisition many times over in a year. CMOC paid C$581 Million for Cangrejos 20 M oz project. CEL owns Circa 6.9 Moz AuEq across El Guayabo (100%) and Colorado V (50%) So a valuation of C$100-150M Canadian in comparison would not be out of the question.

Comparison of Mine Life and Key Insights

	Project	Location	Primary Metals	Estimated Mine Life	Key Notes
1	Cangrejos	Ecuador	Gold, Copper, Silver	26 years	Pre-development, firm 2023 PFS estimate, significant gold reserves.
2	Sandaozhuang	Henan, China	Molybdenum, Tungsten	~40 years (estimated)	Long-operating (since 1970), large reserves, critical for CMOC’s molybdenum.
3	Donggebi	Xinjiang, China	Molybdenum	25–50 years (estimated)	Limited data, smaller scale, speculative estimate based on assumed reserves.
4	Shangfanggou	Henan, China	Molybdenum, Iron	30–40 years (estimated)	Adjacent to Sandaozhuang, synergistic potential, limited reserve data.
5	Tenke Fungurume (TFM)	DRC	Copper, Cobalt	15–30+ years (estimated)	Massive deposit, recent expansions, long-term potential despite political risks.

Key Observations:

• Cangrejos (26 years): Offers a clear, well-documented mine life from the 2023 PFS, making it a reliable mid-term asset. Its gold focus diversifies CMOC’s portfolio, complementing its base metal dominance. The project’s pre-development stage means its mine life is fixed until production begins, but exploration could extend it.
• Sandaozhuang (~40 years): Likely the longest-lived due to its massive molybdenum reserves and long operational history. Its established infrastructure and ongoing production suggest potential for further extensions through exploration.
• Donggebi (25–50 years): The least documented, with speculative mine life based on limited reserve data. It’s a secondary asset, likely with less immediate impact on CMOC’s portfolio compared to Sandaozhuang or TFM.
• Shangfanggou (30–40 years): Benefits from proximity to Sandaozhuang, but limited reserve data makes its mine life estimate speculative. Its joint venture structure may influence operational decisions.
• Tenke Fungurume (15–30+ years): A world-class asset with significant copper and cobalt reserves, bolstered by 2023 expansions. Its mine life is likely understated due to ongoing exploration and the adjacent KFM project, but political risks in the DRC could impact longevity.
  
  
  

  Comparison of Annual Production and Cash Flows

  	Project	Primary Metals	Annual Production (2024)	Est. Revenue (USD)	Est. Operating Cash Flow (USD)	Mine Life	Key Insights
  1	Cangrejos	Gold, Copper, Silver	371,000 oz Au, 18,600 t Cu (projected)	~$842M (projected)	~$300–400M (projected)	26 years	Pre-development, high-margin potential, significant capex required.
  2	Sandaozhuang	Molybdenum, Tungsten	~10,000–12,000 t Mo, ~7,000 t W	~$410M	~$150–200M	~40 years	Stable, high-margin, critical for niche metals but smaller scale.
  3	Donggebi	Molybdenum	~3,000–5,000 t Mo	~$80M	~$30–40M	25–50 years	Minor contributor, limited data, supplementary role.
  4	Shangfanggou	Molybdenum, Iron	~1,000–2,000 t Mo, minor Fe	~$16.5–30M (CMOC share)	~$10–15M (CMOC share)	30–40 years	Small scale, benefits from Sandaozhuang synergies, minor cash flow.
  5	Tenke Fungurume (TFM)	Copper, Cobalt	650,200 t Cu, 114,200 t Co	~$7.6B (80% share)	~$3–4B (80% share)	15–30+ years	Dominant cash flow driver, high growth, but DRC risks.

  
  
  Any further input much appreciated.