Edison have released their initiation of research on PVD (26th...

Edison have released their initiation of research on PVD (26th May). This is available free of charge from the Edison site and no doubt will appear on the PVD site soon as well.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/

Edison did release a report on PVD in March where they did not provide a valuation. This one does - a risked exploration net asset value (RENAV) of A$1.42. The chance of success is given at 7.5% so on an unrisked basis that equates to around $18/share.

However that is for success on all 5 prospects in the well which would be very unlikely I would think as going across a number of geological plays.

More realistic would be success with one prospect. If you take the largest Jurassic prospect (Fan 1) then on success it would be worth around $7 (16 fold increase) by their calculations. Similarly, the single Aptian prospect equates to around $4 (9 fold increase). If we get lucky across a geological play and all the Jurassic prospects come in (Fans 1, 2 and 3) then around $11 (25 fold increase)

FAR had success with both of their recent wells. It would be nice, given that we have 5 chances of success with the one well, to hit more than once. Having said that, just one success (in one of the bigger prospects please) would also be more than enough.