Edison research report on SUDA

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Suda-Pharmaceuticals-Improving-delivery-of-existing-drug-products.pdf

In a nutshell

We are initiating coverage of SUDA Pharmaceuticals with a valuation of A$18m or A$0.13 per basic
share (A$0.09 per diluted share) using a risk-adjusted NPV model focusing strictly on the ZolpiMist
programme (see Exhibit 6). We do not include the six other programmes as they are still being
formulated. We will likely include them in our valuation once the formulations have been finalised
and they have entered human clinical trials. For anagrelide, if we assume a 20% market share in
ovarian and pancreatic patients with high platelets and 10% market share in lung cancer patients
with high platelets as well as a US$50,000 per patient price, peak sales in the US alone could reach
US$470m (A$785m). Using a 10% probability of success once the programme achieves human
clinical trial status and a 2029 launch year, our illustrative NPV value for anagrelide would be
around US$28m (A$47m)

SUDA is currently conducting an entitlement offer in which eligible shareholders can subscribe for
one new share for each share currently held and one option for each three shares subscribed for. If
fully subscribed, the company would raise A$3.6m, total shares outstanding would increase to
284.5m and there would be 101.6m options. Under this scenario, our valuation for the company
would be A$22m or A$0.08 per basic share (A$0.06 per diluted share), taking into account both the
increase in cash and dilution.