I did a prediction last Friday about a possible market correction. First, LYC clearly is a good stock. The PDF issue will still likely be solved - a 75% chance of approval.
My predictions previously showed that multiple deadlines exist for the US:
US Budget deadline Dec 3
US inflation Dec 10
US Federal reserve Dec 15
US debt ceiling Dec 15
US Build Back Better end Dec
With the advent of Omnicron - the correction essentially became "earlier". HOWEVER, due to changing data - it looks like first:
Omnicron is NOT as serious as people thought - most are mild cases. Data from SA shows that 65% of cases are unvaccinated, and the rest are very mild cases of extreme tiredness and affect males under the age of 40 mostly.
We will know the extent of deaths for Omnicron in the following days.
If Omnicron WAS SERIOUS, essentially the above deadlines become "deleted":
US Budget deadline Dec 3 --> if Omnicron is bad, the budget will be quickly resolved (stopgap measure until January or even March)
US inflation Dec 10 will be a non-topic since it was obvious due to Omnicron.
US Federal Reserve Dec 15 will rather INCREASE QE to reduce the shock on Omnicron. Or just stay as is.
US debt ceiling Dec 15 is still problematic.
US Build Back Better seems to have to scale back to counteract inflation.
However, according to the latest data:
US Budget deadline --> Republicans seem to agree on a stop-gap measure until January or March.
Us inflation Dec 10 will still be an issue. HOWEVER due to Omnicron being not as serious, demand might skyrocket even further.
US Federal Reserve Dec 15 will still be an issue.
US Debt Ceiling Dec 15 will still be an issue.
US Build Back Better will NOT BE SCALED BACK.
In general, due to the changing data, it might actually be GOOD to buy!!!!!!!! However, according to historical data, December 10-15 might still be problematic. HOWEVER, as we know, daily price predictions are way too complicated -> for risk averse people it might be better to wait and see what happens, until the US markets tomorrow (Futures seem to indicate a +0.7% for Dow)
Currently, there is too much volatility. But in general, the future seems to return to the original course of history.
LYC Price at posting:
$8.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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