I did a prediction last Friday about a possible market correction.
First, LYC clearly is a good stock.
The PDF issue will still likely be solved - a 75% chance of approval.
My predictions previously showed that multiple deadlines exist for the US:With the advent of Omnicron - the correction essentially became "earlier".
- US Budget deadline Dec 3
- US inflation Dec 10
- US Federal reserve Dec 15
- US debt ceiling Dec 15
- US Build Back Better end Dec
HOWEVER, due to changing data - it looks like first:
- Omnicron is NOT as serious as people thought - most are mild cases. Data from SA shows that 65% of cases are unvaccinated, and the rest are very mild cases of extreme tiredness and affect males under the age of 40 mostly.
- We will know the extent of deaths for Omnicron in the following days.
If Omnicron WAS SERIOUS, essentially the above deadlines become "deleted":However, according to the latest data:
- US Budget deadline Dec 3 --> if Omnicron is bad, the budget will be quickly resolved (stopgap measure until January or even March)
- US inflation Dec 10 will be a non-topic since it was obvious due to Omnicron.
- US Federal Reserve Dec 15 will rather INCREASE QE to reduce the shock on Omnicron. Or just stay as is.
- US debt ceiling Dec 15 is still problematic.
- US Build Back Better seems to have to scale back to counteract inflation.
In general, due to the changing data, it might actually be GOOD to buy!!!!!!!!
- US Budget deadline --> Republicans seem to agree on a stop-gap measure until January or March.
- Us inflation Dec 10 will still be an issue. HOWEVER due to Omnicron being not as serious, demand might skyrocket even further.
- US Federal Reserve Dec 15 will still be an issue.
- US Debt Ceiling Dec 15 will still be an issue.
- US Build Back Better will NOT BE SCALED BACK.
However, according to historical data, December 10-15 might still be problematic.
HOWEVER, as we know, daily price predictions are way too complicated -> for risk averse people it might be better to wait and see what happens, until the US markets tomorrow (Futures seem to indicate a +0.7% for Dow)
Currently, there is too much volatility. But in general, the future seems to return to the original course of history.
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- Edited prediction: Omnicron not as serious - but US deadlines loom
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