Yeah those assumptions are clearly unfounded, I'm sorry but it's...

Yeah those assumptions are clearly unfounded, I'm sorry but it's true. I am under no pretense that there will be downward pressure on the copper price, but overall will remain largely stable.

There will be signficant increase in copper supply, (there is a lot of coverage on this from the commodities sector specialists) and then the demand story will depend on China, and US and EU recovery. At best I am thinking that US and EU will make up the copper shortfall from china which has been enormous over the past 8 years - clearly unsustainable, particularly as China has grown to become the worlds 2nd largest economy, growth rates of 9%+ just can't hold.

I would expect that with a copper price above USD 2.50/lb AVB can still manage to post decent EBITDA with an estimated cash cost of production of USD 0.75/lb.

Right now I can say that I am pleased with the SP direction of AVB as of late, with a cautious investor sentiment towards mining/commodities. The post june market rally has helped but I feel that the SP gains have been due to the pleasing progress that the company has made on the business development end of things.

Let's not go too crazy about forecasting 50c per share etc as of yet, as there are still a few hurdles along the way. Mining is risky business, never forget that, but at the same time, we will be rewarded for taking the risk when the project is underway.

Again, make sure you excercise good risk management, take off the rose coloured lenses, and continue to look for macroeconomic factors that could impact your investment and the direction of AVB.

but so far, I like where we are. Good luck everyone. DYOR.

Get rich or die trying. Get money, f. beaches.


Ari Goldman.