EFFECT on SP post SPUD DATE Anns

I have created this new Thread on the basis that the info below is more relevant to such a topic, than by posting to the “used to death” Thread : LSE tonight – with 12,000+ posts to date in its 1^st 5 years.

Post follows :

Not in the 3 to 4 years prior to last Friday (12th March) has

1) the day’s volume been anywhere near Friday’s, on a day

a) the SP has been its highest,

b) on a date shortly after a Spud date has been Announced, and

c) as a percentage of SOI, on the dates

per the following table :

Date Well drilled SP range SOI (bn) Vol % SOI = MC ($m)

13 Jun 17 Icewine #2 6.4 – 6.8c 4.2 ~50m 1.19 277

07 Mar 19 Winx – #1 2.3 – 2.4c 6.3 ~105m 1.67 148

05 Mar 20 Charlie-#1 2.4c 4.2 ~40m 0.58 166

12 Mar 21 Merlin-#1 1.1c 12.1 862m

(incl.194m CXA) SEVEN.1 133

2) such a day’s volume – as on last Friday (Mar 12^th) - comprised such a huge # of shares traded at so many specific times
during the normal trading hours of 10.00am to 4.00pm,

IMO, at each time, by just

ONE buyer buying, 1 large parcel, x so many sellers either profit-taking or bailing out,

NOT

ONE seller selling, 1 large parcel, to so many buyers, who’ve suddenly caught on that something might be brewing yet Unannounced

per the following table, of trades & volume for each of only 8 parcels after OPENING trades,

per such parcel > 20.0m:
(e.g. 1 buyer placing 1 order to buy >20 million, that takes x # of trades to satisfy that order)

Time # of trades Vol (mill) (E - if exact)

10.05.18 16 25.0 E

10.05.44 17 43.6

10.23.18 42 32

10.43.14 13 28.125 E

10.43.14 13 29.8

12.16.45 26 26.39 E (& all CXA ! )

3.17.58 to 3.18.20 (20secs)

8 50.75 E

3.40.19 1 ! 25.0 E

TOTALS 136 (8 parcels) 260.7m, or 30%!! of total vol. for the day!

As I’m no good at posting Tables from Excel spreadsheets, it’s thus taken me several hours to compile this post, and trust therefore that it will prove of some value to those formulating a policy of trading, if any, in their holdings based on
- what the SP will reach within the next few days or weeks leading to date of reaching Total Depth, and
- given the above info possibly likely to be of extraordinary effect. GLTAH, Guata.