EFFECT on SP post SPUD DATE Anns, page-21

Hi @alexned

The SOI was about a quarter of what it is today, so at 2 cents we have a similar market value (off the top of my head). That news was based on a successful set of reported results for the IW#1 'proof of concept' or 'science well'. Company had billions of barrels of prospective resource thought to be in that acreage.

Success at Merlin will likely drive higher SP's in the near term before retracing while we let time pan out to properly 'value' the success. IMO. But that also depends on the nature of the success....the size and scope of the 'find' and the estimated field NPV10 values. I suspect that 'we-the JV partners' could sell any commercial discovery, in due course, at about 1/3 to 1/2 absolute max, of NPV10. And then 'we-the company' get half of that. If Merlin NPV10 is (say) A$6.40 which is half of Talitha's projected US$10, adjacent to TAPS and the Dalton and on 500 mmbbls, and if the drill confirms the "best" estimated number for the drill of 270 mmbbls, and if we can sell it for 1/2 of NPV10 leaving the developer happy with the remaining half, then that is 3.5 cents per share over and above whatever value exists in the remainder of Peregrine, in Umiat, in Yukon and of course in Icewine. Would need a discovery nearer the "high" estimates, and more favourable NPV10 dynamics to generate a near term (ie 12-18 month) 8c per share. I'll let you weigh the probabilities of that.

Of course, that is assuming FA is worth more than FA to those trading the stock. The company was certainly not 'worth' 8.1c a share in 2016. Not even close! It seems obvious to me now, but I was blind to many factors then. Most who remained holders through that period (including me) really began their education on minnow exploration on the North Slope after that. That education continues.