John, I hope you are right about impending inflation, but I can think of a few deflationary pressures we'll be seeing in the near future (not specific to SDG): - More working from home --> less demand for office space - Fewer international students --> less rental demand in Australia's education capitals (and flow-on effects to local businesses) - Less immigration --> lower population growth
I've taken a bit of time to digest the financials.
Full disclosure: I'm a pessimist by nature - so I'm sure this has coloured my observations, which are listed below.
The negatives: - Revenue is down 40% - Free cash flow is way down - Net assets for the company are down - book value per share has only risen because of the buybacks - Debt-to-equity ratio has risen - The company has elected to pay a dividend despite borrowing $62m, and losing cash
The positives: - Current ratio of 8 - Current asset backing of 18.9cents per share (calculated as recommended by Graham: current assets minus total liabilities) - Book value per share of $2.48 - Most of the company's unsettled lots are in the Gold Coast, where property prices aren't as aggressively inflated as Sydney or Melbourne
Bottom line: - Balance sheet and cash flows are weaker than I'd like, and the business seems exceptionally susceptible to deflation and uncertainty. - I won't be selling, as I think the upside potential if we see major inflation is huge... But, I won't be adding to my small holding at this time.