SDG 0.00% 7.3¢ sunland group limited

John, I hope you are right about impending inflation, but I can...

  1. 215 Posts.
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    John, I hope you are right about impending inflation, but I can think of a few deflationary pressures we'll be seeing in the near future (not specific to SDG):
    - More working from home --> less demand for office space
    - Fewer international students --> less rental demand in Australia's education capitals (and flow-on effects to local businesses)
    - Less immigration --> lower population growth

    I've taken a bit of time to digest the financials.

    Full disclosure: I'm a pessimist by nature - so I'm sure this has coloured my observations, which are listed below.

    The negatives:
    - Revenue is down 40%
    - Free cash flow is way down
    - Net assets for the company are down - book value per share has only risen because of the buybacks
    - Debt-to-equity ratio has risen
    - The company has elected to pay a dividend despite borrowing $62m, and losing cash

    The positives:
    - Current ratio of 8
    - Current asset backing of 18.9cents per share (calculated as recommended by Graham: current assets minus total liabilities)
    - Book value per share of $2.48
    - Most of the company's unsettled lots are in the Gold Coast, where property prices aren't as aggressively inflated as Sydney or Melbourne

    Bottom line:
    - Balance sheet and cash flows are weaker than I'd like, and the business seems exceptionally susceptible to deflation and uncertainty.
    - I won't be selling, as I think the upside potential if we see major inflation is huge... But, I won't be adding to my small holding at this time.

    Not advice.
    Last edited by dilu: 05/09/20
 
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