egypt is a warning to all financial markets

  1. 6,757 Posts.
    ...and governments?

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/egypt-economy-food-prices-fuel-prices/2/10/2011/id/32723

    "The Relentless Math:

    Population 1960: 27.8 million
    Population 2008: 81.7 million
    Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)
    Population in 2046 after another doubling: 164 million

    Rainfall average over whole country: about 2 inches per year
    Highest rainfall region: Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year
    Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley): 3%
    Arable land per capita: 0.04 Ha (400 m2)
    Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha
    Food imports: 40% of requirements
    Grain imports: 60% of requirements

    Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative in 2007
    Oil production peaked in 1996
    Cost of oil rising steeply
    Cost of oil and food tightly linked

    The future of Egypt will be shaped by these few biophysical facts -- a relentless form of math that is hardly unique to Egypt, by the way -- and it matters very little who is in power. Given the choice, I would not want to live there, nor in any other country that has fostered or permitted such reckless population growth beyond what the country itself can sustain."

 
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