EIA STEO

This is the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

They have all the data to crunch and super computers to do it. Probably do a better job than any Prince, Talking Head or blogger.

Landing page for STEO
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/index.cfm

Estimate for 2015 Avg WTI is $54.58 and for 2016 Avg its $71.00.
Page 27 shows Q0Q spot price estimates. Q1/$46.33; Q2/$51; Q3/$57; Q4/$64
"The current values of futures and options contracts suggest very high uncertainty in the price outlook"
all of which leads to wide margin in statistical analysis

"WTI futures contracts for April 2015 delivery, traded during the five-day period ending January 8, averaged $51/bbl, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in April 2015 at $34/bbl and $76/bbl, respectively."

This book is revised monthly. Its got everything you could possibly want (except for tomorrow's price) and consumption, production, where, type etc.

Even with all of the Capex cutbacks (although I would imagine many of these are not yest factored in) the forecast is:
* total crude oil production at 9.2 million bbl/d in Dec 2014
* total crude oil production averages 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015.
* projected crude oil production averages 9.5 million bbl/d in 2016

IMO best to use these sources and I've made my model adjustments (Recovery) reflecting such.