Is it the usual play or something more sinister?
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Last week I wrote that we are coming closer towards the pointy end of making a bottom towards the end of July. We still have few days to go. I have been talking about this low since mid-may, saying we will top end of May and bottom end of July. But that was based on "normal" play. What I mean by normal is that general markets, even if they are not increasing, they are not in big drop mode. In my weekly report last weekend, I wrote that general markets are easing, may get into correction - drop of 10+%. The good play would be pullback - 2/5% drop. As of yesterday, SP 500 has nearly dropped 5% from its high. So we are at a crucial juncture. If we drop more in general markets, I feel the July end bottom we may have to wait. Markets to stabilise before we feel we have bottomed.
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In mid-May when I wrote what the bottom would look like, initially I wrote that a 30/40% from its high. Few weeks back I revised that saying the drop could be closer towards 50% for some stocks.EL8 has come down from 68 to 31.5 today, so over 50% - so in track with what I was thinking. Why such a big drop? U sector is volatile and these rises and falls are not unusual. For long termers, I feel macro is still good. But I follow price action, trading patterns, so my play is slightly different. Its individual risk/reward, there is no right or wrong.
One other thing I have been writing is that CCJ will drop to 45 - saying that over 2 months. Yesterday it reached 43.57. Yesterday it closed at 44.58. It needs to hold here, otherwise, 39/40 for CCJ is in play. It will drag down most U stocks with it. So lets hope it holds.
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EL8 reached 31.5 today, close to its 52 week lows of 29. Last panic was when Namibia situation happened. This time no incident. Just dropping on macro play. When U sector was rising, big stocks like PDN/BOE/LOT/DYL etc made very large gains. Mid caps like EL8/AGE etc moderate. But when its dropping, there is no respite for the mid caps and dropping in line with them. Not fair I would think. Only positive is that to buy from this level may give a much larger gain in short term. Hopefully we are getting closer towards bottom, maybe next week, but general markets have to behave. All the best.
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