Is this point to decide what happens next?.
From a weekly perspective, a great week. Last week 32.5, this week 39, over 20% rise.
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So what is happening? I feel U macro is at a very critical level. CCJ and U sector has done well. Mid-week, I wrote on another thread, what I feel possible plays can happen. I am basing it on CCJ which I am following, as must be evident by now, for those reading my posts. I had written, either CCJ will consolidate after 4 greens or will do what it did in March - it raced over 20s from early 40s to 50s in 6 green trading weeks. We crossed the 4 greens. We did 6 greens straight for CC yesterday. So second play happened.
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But the crucial thing is - what happens next? For those who read my posts, for last 2 months I have been saying about September top (after July top, May bottom, both of which happened, incidentally). Just a week back, it was looking very bleak. Things changed. CCJ gained around 20% in a week - is it just to satisfy my September top? I am just kidding.
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We are at cross roads. There are two paths from here. CCJ does a slightly higher day today, but intra-day, but finishes in red, Then it does back test of 45. Other scenario is it gets over 50, and stays there. Important point is - it stays over 50. At this stage I don't have an opinion what's going to happen. I had strong opinion for months, which somehow played out, but now I am not sure. There is now some euphoria in the sector - and my experience says, whenever Euphoria comes, we lose. i hope its different this time.
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Tonight I feel is important to give short term direction. I know most here are long term, so it doesn't affect them. But I feel we are at cross roads now, for short to medium play.
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So what's my short term play saying? Its saying - we don't know. We have to wait for tonight. Lets see how it plays out.
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Personally, I have exited all my EL8 stocks, once again. Last week I wrote my average was 31.5. I exited mostly at around average around 38.5. A decent gain around 25%, which I felt I should take. More importantly, I was playing U macro rather than EL8. If things go well, EL8 may fly. But if not, a big drop is possible, more towards 32, I hope its not for holders.
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So which is the direction?. I don't know. I will wait to see what happens tonight. U macros is very strong. Spot price is also on the rise, Can stocks play to that? Very possibly. But as I wrote mid-week, if we don't have a consolidation (in tis case towards 45), then we may have a big drop, more towards 4. We don't want that. But I know what most want. A play towards 6s - isn't it..
So what may happen next week? All depends on CCJ. On weakness it needs to hold 45. But its got a lot of buffer for that. For many, its about early 50s. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best
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