So, even if we use the more heavily touted $250m sale value (net of taxes and costs) for Rural Services, the ELDPA's look fully priced at these levels, on the available info?
Net Bank Debt 1H12 $370m
less ATO settlement proceeds $75m
less sale Pulpwood Assets $60m
less sale of SmartFibre stake $3m
Net Bank Debt FY12 $235m
Assumed Rural Services Sale Price $250m
Closure Costs of remaining Ops -$20m (guidance from other posts)
Required Sale Price for Auto Ops = $75m, to justify current ELDPA price of ~40/security).
From speaking to some analysts on the likely price for the Auto Ops, $75m is a very full price in the current climate (and apparently above the prior bids for Auto earlier this year).
Also, for the Banks to effectively force this U-Turn in strategy, raises a number of questions regarding the amount of Cash which has bled from the company over the last six months, which is unaccounted for in the above Debt assumptions.
As such, the risk-reward ratio does not look great for ELDPAs and is absolutely dreadful for the ELDs.
Would welcome any feedback re pricing and debt level assumptions?
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