What a mess. I'm no expert on Greenland's politics but this is my attempt to make sense of it.
Siumut is ahead but is unlikely to be able to govern in its own right. Siumut would need to cobble together Demokratic and Nunatta Qitorni to get a clear pathway without a referendum. Currently they have 46.3%.
The two largest parties against the mine have about 45% of the vote at the moment (that would be a Inuit Ataqatigiit and Naleraq alliance).
That's an incredibly close contest!
So both sides can form a coalition government at the moment. If Siumut agrees to a referendum, it could bring Atasut into the coalition, taking them over 50% of the vote.
I found this useful, copied from a local newspaper (note that the Co-operation Party is Suleqatigiissitsisut, which has a fraction under 1% of the vote).
Source:
https://knr.gl/da/nyheder/mut%C3%A9-b-egede-tager-meningsm%C3%A5ling-med-et-gran-salt
