Went back through a few Tony Seba videos for some highlights and...

Went back through a few Tony Seba videos for some highlights and perspective...

Whilst I don't necessarily agree with all he says, he has been remarkably accurate with his trend predictions for costs of batteries, EVs, etc.

FWIW he predicted/s that by about 2025, a "basic" 200-mile range EV will cost around $12000 (USD).
He also sees battery costs falling significantly further towards 2030, down to below $50/kWh.
His conclusion is, that for PURELY economic reasons, it will make no sense for anyone to want an ICE vehicle from only a few (4-5-6?) years from now, when the EV alternative is cleaner/quieter/etc etc and the running costs (charging) are about 1/10th the price of the fuel cost of an ICE vehicle.






Note, these curves were created in 2014! Basically spot on so far, when at the time, others were calling him crazy.
Well worth a watch to hear the detail/reasoning, for those who haven't seen his work yet.


Iirc, a video I saw recently about Tesla's rear-end casting/press noted that this has reduced 70 body parts to just one, and they are planning the same for the front end. Iirc this eliminated hundreds of robots normally associated with the process of assembling/welding those parts together. This is the type of innovation that will contribute to the apparently "implausible" projections of sub-$10k EVs. Amazing stuff. Imo it really highlights the snail's pace that the auto sector has been locked in for decades and decades, despite progress with robots etc.