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Is the future really electric?
Australia has trailed the rest of the world when it comes to electric cars. But the landscape is about to look very different.
By PHILIP KING

Tesla Model 3. Range from 350km. Price from $70k (est). Arrives Q1 2019-20 Picture: Supplied

• From The Deal
  February 14, 2019
• 8 MINUTE READ
  99

We’re not used to big numbers when it comes to electric vehicles because, as a nation, we hardly buy any. Last year the total was just 1352, and that was a record.
But zoom out for the global picture and the numbers get big very quickly. In 2018, China bought more than 1.2 million EVs — up 62 per cent — and the world fleet will pass the five million mark soon with demand growing in the US and Europe as well.
At the same time car-makers are falling over each other to announce ever-larger EV development budgets. More than $US300 billion will be committed over the next decade, according to Reuters, and the result will be hundreds of EVs that mirror traditional cars in their variety.
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So, in what feels like a familiar story, Australia is lagging behind. But if there’s a watershed moment when the game changes, it’s now. By the end of 2019, someone who wants an EV will have a range of options like never before — including a few at prices only slightly above the mainstream.

Hyundai Kona EV. Small SUV. Range: <450km. Price: from $60k (est). Arrival: Q4 2019.
It began late last year when Hyundai lowered the price benchmark with its Ioniq EV hatchback, which starts at $45,000 – the cheapest on the market. That undercuts the Renault Zoe ZE, a smaller battery hatchback that is already on sale for $52,000, and throws down the gauntlet to Nissan, which is about to launch the second generation of its pioneering Leaf.
As the EV rollout gathers pace – and more of what’s available overseas reaches Australia – industry body the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries is drawing up a timetable of arrivals to cope. Before long most carmakers will offer an EV, says FCAI director of emerging technologies Lenore Fletcher.
“The consumer is inundated with choice for traditional vehicles so they’re expecting the same with EVs,” says Fletcher. “And it’s coming.”
The planet’s favourite vehicle format, the SUV, features on this year’s list, with debuts due from Mercedes and Audi (see panel), while Hyundai will double its offerings in a few weeks with the Kona EV, which has just been named North American SUV of the Year.

Mini EV. Small hatch. Range: 300km Price:TBA. Arrival: 2020
As the EV floodgates open, Fletcher says the cost of entry still has further to fall, while the technology is increasing battery range, another key barrier to entry.
With range in mind, most potential buyers cite a lack of recharging infrastructure as a deal-breaker, but here, too, things are moving rapidly. Late last year local start-up Chargefox opened a fast-charging station in country Victoria – the first in a string of 22 stations that will connect the eastern seaboard.
“We’re going to link Adelaide to Brisbane – so all major cities – and on freeways,” says Chargefox director Tim Washington. “We’re expecting to complete all of them by the end of this year.”
He agrees that it’s a “watershed year for our market”, with the arrival of mass-market EVs driving the infrastructure rollout, and vice versa.

Nissan Leaf. Small hatch. Range: 270km. Price: $50k (est) Arrival: Q1 2019-20
Chargefox stations change the game when it comes to refuelling times. These depend partly on recharger output, partly on the system in the car. Every Chargefox site will have 350kW rechargers that match the best networks being rolled out overseas and – where the car can do it – have the power to pump in 400km of range in just 15 minutes.
Chargefox will not have the game to itself for long, with the big oil and utilities companies circling and announcements expected soon from as-yet-undeclared rivals. Other players include the nation’s motoring bodies, such as the NRMA and RACV, which are lead investors in Chargefox and have plans of their own.
In NSW, the NRMA has five fast-charging stations in operation but will boost this to 40 by the end of the year. With a focus on regional areas, they will cover 95 per cent of journeys, the NRMA says, with 50kW fast-chargers that are free to members. Together with Queensland’s electric highway extending north and nascent networks in other states, travelling long distances using battery power will be viable as never before.

Tesla Model 3. Mid-size sedan. Range: >350km. Price: from $70k (est). Arrival: Q1 2019-20
NRMA chief executive Rohan Lund believes the economics of EVs will quickly win over buyers as the running costs of oil-powered vehicles increasingly strain household budgets. He says because EVs are more reliable they put fewer demands on the NRMA’s roadside service, so it makes sense to offer recharging at no cost. “For EV drivers who might use our roadside service less frequently we can provide that value in other areas, like subsidised charging,” says Lund.
In any case, says Washington, the business case for Chargefox hangs on running the network rather than simply supplying electricity. But the fact that a fast-recharging network will soon exist removes an important psychological obstacle to EV adoption.
“Cars are associated with freedom and utility,” he says, “and we recognise that having a ubiquitous network is essential to selling EVs. People will do most of their recharging at home but you still need a way to recharge on the road.”
When it comes to the economics of EVs themselves, fleet operators have been doing the sums and largely waiting on the sidelines — until now. The Australasian Fleet Management Association says steep vehicle depreciation is one of the biggest costs and it’s difficult to avoid.

Mercedes-Benz EQC. Mid-size SUV. Range: 425km. Price: from $100k (est). Arrival: Q1 2019-20
“You have to keep it for longer for the numbers to make sense and EVs will continue to get cheaper,” says AfMA executive director Mace Hartley. The familiar cycle of selling a car after three or four years will need to stretch to six or seven so that the cost can be completely written off. Long battery warranties — Hyundai offers eight years — also reduce the gamble, he says.
But fleets are starting to come around. An EV drive day last November, organised by the Clean Energy Finance Corp with support from the AfMA, Victorian government, RACV and Chargefox, attracted 60 fleet buyers from 41 organisations. They sampled 13 vehicles, ranging from Jaguar’s I-Pace SUV (launched late last year and priced from $119,000), to commercials such as Renault’s Kangoo ZE small van and Hino trucks converted to battery power by Victorian start-up SEA Electric.
Half the fleet managers said they would be putting EVs into their fleets in the next one to two years, with almost 40 per cent expecting to incorporate EVs within a few months.

Porsche Taycan. Luxury sedan. Range: 400km. Price TBA. Arrival: 2020
For some, the considerations go beyond the purely financial. Barwon Water, which supplies 300,000 residents around the Geelong area as far west as Warrnambool, has two Renault Zoe ZEs in its car pool that it recharges using solar panels recently installed at its HQ and Black Rock water reclamation site. They are part of a 200-vehicle fleet that is mainly diesel-powered but about to change. Barwon Water, in line with mandates from the Victorian government and its own environmental program, plans a complete overhaul of its fleet.
“We’ve committed to 100 per cent renewables by 2025,” says corporate secretary Michael Watson. “Of our emissions, vehicles are about 11 per cent. So we’re going along the path of using our sites to solar-generate where possible and replacing the diesel fleet with electric vehicles.”
One challenge is the higher upfront cost of EVs, although Watson says the running costs of its two Zoe ZEs are “almost zero”. Another is staff expectations, with many of Barwon’s fleet used half the time as family cars and the outgoing vehicles mainly Ford Territory SUVs.
However, running the Renaults has “demystified” EVs, he says. After sampling the cars, employees have shed doubts over range and performance. At the boardroom level, executives on novated leases are keen to swap into some of the luxury EVs on the way.

Aston Martin Rapide E. Luxury sedan. Range: >320km. Price: >$500k (est) Arrival: Q2 2019-20
Watson says Barwon is casting a wide net in trying to find appropriate EVs to replace its fleet, which includes large trucks. One specialist truck is already being converted to battery power by a local outfit.
Barwon Water is not alone. Hyundai’s future mobility manager Scott Nargar says many businesses have been keenly waiting for its Ioniq and upcoming Kona EVs so that they can start moving their fleets away from internal combustion.
So far — unlike most situations overseas — they have been acting without incentives from government. And that means Australia risks missing a trick, according to the CEO of the Electric Vehicle Council, Behyad Jafari.
Like the carmakers themselves, Jafari says EVs are coming like it or not, but we will be playing catch-up unless the right policy framework is in place.
“We want to see Australian consumers get access to the best new technology as soon as possible,” he says. That requires co-ordination and integration, because EVs make different demands on everything from roads to buildings. If we’re tearing down walls to fit recharging boxes, we’ve got it wrong.
“We’re talking about putting a new technology on the road — what does the regulatory environment need to look like for that?”
Moreover, with some of the world’s largest lithium deposits we should be adding value to the supply chain, rather than — the familiar story — simply digging it up and shipping it out.

Audi E-tron. Large SUV. Range: 400km. Price: from $120k (est) Arrival: Q1 2019-20.
Some government money is expected to be earmarked for recharging infrastructure and Jafari says the upcoming federal election is forcing political parties to reveal their positions. He expects policy announcements — especially from the ALP — to favour the technology.
“We’re non-political but one side is much more eager to be supportive ... the other is willing to have the conversation but it’s been a few years and they haven’t acted on it yet.”
Jafari says the time is now. “We can absolutely catch up and put an end to that constant joke about ‘of course Australia is going to be behind’. If 2019 is not a watershed year and we leave it to 2020 or 2021, then it will be much harder.”
So far local entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and while that’s insufficient on its own, they are making waves.
One Queensland-based company, Tritium, is capturing attention overseas with its liquid-cooled super-fast rechargers. Tritium will be a key supplier for Chargefox’s rollout and on the global stage its units are already being deployed as part of Europe’s extensive Ionity recharging network.
Tritium co-founder Paul Sernia is more optimistic than most about Australia’s place in the EV league table.
“We’re on a par. The rest of the world is moving and some countries stand out — look at Norway, Germany or California. They give us a window into the future and what the rest of the world will look like.
“In Australia there’s a really positive atmosphere at the moment and it’s only getting better.”
That will be music to the ears of many. By the end of 2019, our EV numbers should finally be growing and the electric landscape will look very different indeed.
PHILIP KING

MOTORING EDITOR
Philip King became The Australian's Motoring Editor in 2000 after a variety of roles on the newspaper over the previous decade. He grew up and studied in the UK, where he gained a bachelor of arts degree at Lee... Read more

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