psi old chap, if the oil is in the ground it will not matter at all, but it is helpful to be clear how the risking is done in the oil patch. The volume quoted as the mean is usually the mean success volume (msv) which then occurs at the cos which itself is more commonly known as pos namely probability of success. Your cos is already associated with the msv so the factor is not applied again. The only reduction to the msv is by the recovery factor (rf) which may be whatever it ultimately is depending on the quality of the reservoir and the secondary and tertiary recovery efforts that may be made. that being said the rf usually applies to the primary recovery. so with your 30% rf you would be looking at a mean recoverable of 35 times 0.3 equals 10.5 mill barrels. so to put this in words, there is a probability of success of 22% in finding oil of whatever volume within the range from 1 barrel to maybe 500 mill barrels, but the mean of all the probabilistic outcomes is 35 million barrels.
CTP Price at posting:
41.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
