cheers pbsear,I also meant to say that the data they are seeing...

cheers pbsear,

I also meant to say that the data they are seeing must have well over 10% difference, otherwise the natural variance in data would cross over or be too near.

I think there must be a big difference. If there wasn't, the data would not be good enough. In clinical trials where the placebo and the drugs data isn't very different, more testing is required.

neu's case is the opposite, they are able to reduce the size of the trial. This probably means there is a clear and definite positive difference.

One other thing that needs to be considered is neu's drug is perfectly safe & will be the only drug available for this condition. Proof of even a 10% improvement (& I'm suggesting it's much more) is enough & will give great benefit to the patients and save lots of money for health authorities.

Some big money earning drugs only give slight satistical benefits.

Because of the fda's keenness for a drug for this condition & the fact that they said go straight to phase 3 (instead of doing a phase 2), this drug could be approved and in use in a very short timeframe indeed. It is even possible for this drug to be earning money this year.

Finding a partnership (if neu want to do that) will be very easy & with a very high royalty, as all risk and testing is done. However they may not wish to, as marketing won't be an issue - it will be the only drug & will be recommended for use by health authorities.

This is all just my opinion, but I think this drug is a 95% goer now. If however it was only a 2 in 1 or even 4 in 1, the risk reward ratio is crazy.

100x would value neu at $2b. Is that enough for a US$1.5b a year seller? And one will have to value neu's other drugs based on similar technologies and logic.

This company isn't being valued properly by the market because we have never had a drug company go from rags to riches here. All the spec investors are following the miners. But blockbuster drugs (once all the testing is done, ie almost now) make big money for very little outlay. Now is the time, imho.

please dyor.

ps. Don't accept a takeover offer unless it's massive ($5+)

pps. I'll revisit this thread on 3rd July 2009. It will be interesting to find out how true my findings are.

Best wishes.