Comments on Revised Elixir Model Rev 58 06/09/2020This whole...

Comments on Revised Elixir Model Rev 58 06/09/2020

This whole exercise does not constitute investment advice and readers should do their own research before making investment decisions.

I have prepared this model for my own use and am simply sharing it with fellow posters.

There are many moving parts to modelling a CBM (CSG) development as readers will appreciate if they count the number of slide bars controlling the model, particularly the major ones in the Field Development Planning Dashboard.

The opinions expressed in this post are entirely my own and are based on the information I have at hand combined with my experience in the industry.

There is no way they are all correct and the parameters behind the model are continuously changing.

The purpose of the model combined with a Google Earth representation of the project is to create a framework for readers to visualise the project from multiple perspectives as an aid to further research.

I have taken the liberty of making a number of basic assumptions based on experience and my analysis of similar operations including a number of research papers on the CBM developments in China to the South of the Elixir Tenement.

For the benefit of new readers, if the text to the right of Web Based Articles is clicked it should open the adjacent article.

The model attempts to look at the Nomgon IX tenement through the eyes of a transactional buyer and poses the question, how Many TJ's/Day will the development support over a say 30 year amortisation period.

Here I have really bitten the bullet but the model has to start somewhere.

• Amortisation and GSA supply Period 30 YearsAverage Yield 2.1 TJ/Sq.M over say 6,000 Sq. KM.

• Reasonable contiguity of production areas for practical purposes.

• A well spacing in the order of 650M

• 36 months average production life for wells.

The model looks at the feasibility of raising say $40,000,000 following 2C certification to get on with the core holes, pilots Etc. to attain 2P certification as rapidly as practical.

The printout associated with this post takes this into account on the basis of a capital raising exercise at 10C/share.

As far as I can see this provides a much better return to shareholders rather than an extensive farm out or putting it another way the farm out partners end up with a pretty good deal at the expense of shareholders.

I stress that my comments are completely independent.

My experience in similar situations has been that boards usually test the water with shareholders before resorting to other means of financing development and the reason I am sharing the model is to assist shareholders to gain a wide-ranging perspective on the risks and returns associated with the Elixir Mongolia project in case this opportunity presents itself.

In a nutshell I see the results so far as very encouraging and would be surprised if the tenement cannot support the said 400 TJ/day GSA.

I must stress that the 400 TJ/Day number is just my best guess at a reasonable target balancing a large enough project to really interest a sizeable transactional buyer and a 2P resource certification with a comfortable margin.

As always, your valued comments and ideas would be greatly appreciated.

According to Excel there are 733 formulas behind this model and the going concern share value comes out at exactly $1.00!

RegardsOGP


Model.pdf
Strategic_Planning.pdf
Well_Layout_Notation.pdf

Your analysis is top shelf OGP.

Only one other poster in HC history could match you and that’s @trade4profit who hasn’t been seen in sometime.