elliot stuff - the week that was Ultra (and others),Well CBA...

elliot stuff - the week that was Ultra (and others),

Well CBA stubbornly held out below Ultra's level of $29.99 so the downside picture is still very much in play.

Looking at the daily chart again, I just wonder if we are seeing a 1 - 2 setup and that maybe we have become too caught up in the intra day detail? My thinking...

Wave 1 down comprising...

i = $30.62 to $30.32
ii = $30.32 to $30.51? (refer below)
iii = $30.51 to $29.25
iv = $29.25 to $30.29
v = $30.29 to $28.90

Wave 2 being the current grinding diagonal on low volume up to $29.98 peak which is a 62.8% retracement (61.8% = $29.97).

Wave (ii) I am not 100% sure of as I do not have the intraday data for the 24th and 25th June. CBA opened at $30.41 on the 24th and had an intraday high of $30.51 and an intraday low of $30.32 - I don't know if it opened at 41 dropped to 32 then rallied to 51 or the other way around - but either way it would seem to fit this count when combined with the movement on the 25th.

Also, CBA has been wanting to go up all week, BUT volume has dried up. Last week was the lowest volume in a 5 day week for CBA in nearly 3 years!! So we currently have no sellers and no buyers - the calm before the storm?

Just some thoughts - the grinding low volume diagonal up is what you would expect to see as a corrective rally plays out and so this may well be the case. Earlier this week I had begun to lean towards this being Wave 5 of this total movement from $23.05 and was looking for some volume and impulsiveness all week as confirmation. The absolute lack of both has me starting to lean back towards the bear case again - Monday will tell us a lot more given the Friday night rally on Wall St will no doubt cause CBA to pop up from its weak Friday close - question is will it then face selling pressure or continue to rally over $30?

I must admit that the chart patterns for the other 3 banks also looks weak as if they are about to recommence their declines.

Thoughts and comments?

Jaysee