Elon Musk: 12-18 month recession coming, page-27

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convoy63

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30/05/22

16:08

Post #: 61707988
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Originally posted by Stickshift: ↑

I'm an investor (long), not shorter.

But here's a good reason why I wouldn't want to short AVZ when it's trading: what's to stop further disputes from occurring and suspensions? If I was short I wouldn't want to be stuck in more suspensions (costing every day borrowed). That's outside my risk appetite.

What this issue has demonstrated is that there are issues going on in the DRC that the market wasn't privy to until disclosed by AVZ on 4 May (nevermind that rumours of this very issue could be found on the internet before then, dismissed by many). Surely this increases the (already significant) sovereign risk?

Here's a question for you Timbo: When was the dispute first known by AVZ? Is it material information? Do you think the 'Ministerial decree to award the mining licence' announcement was the most reasonable place to announce the ownership dispute to the market? Why do you think it was included in that ann?

The market is made up of all sorts of participants - smart money, dumb money and everything in between. I suspect some will have seen what's played out and already made up their minds when AVZ trades again. Others may wait to form an opinion on business developments.

You can spin it any which way you want, what you can't change is my opinion that I think the AVZ SP is far more likely to sink than fly on retrade.

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Why would anyone care about trying to change your opinion ?

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Elon Musk: 12-18 month recession coming, page-27

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