Hi all. I am a new holder and wanted to capture what research I had done as I go, starting with this post.
We will see many announcements over the coming weeks and months, so I thought a thread where we could dump all our research and discussion around revenue projections, future prospects, joint ventures etc.... pretty much anything except technical analysis as there is already a thread for that.Here are just a few points that I hope will help new or prospective holders that want a quick summary of some major points. Many of you long term holders will know all of this. I want to follow up with more in the coming days and weeks, but hopefully this helps. All views are welcome, but please avoid blatant ramping and if you have a risk you want to discuss, lets do it sensibly and not just criticise something without some form of reasoning, this doesn't help anyone.
Major points:
Microsoft ISV Partnership- Ability to leverage the Azure platform, removing the need to purchase expensive server and GPU infrastructure for high quality game and content streaming.
- Microsoft Azure services are available in 61 countries, with more coming soon, accounting for around 475 million subscribers
- EM1 is currently in talks with Microsoft to discuss a formal co-selling arrangement to see Emerge sell its cloud streaming tech alongside microsoft infrastructure to mobile network operators, payTV and other conten delivery networks.
MTN Arena- EM1 has a two year partnership deal with MTN Group to deliver a customised version of its Arcade X platform under the MTN brand MTN Arena to 29 million mobile gamers across South Africa.
- MTN has around 250 million subscribers in 22 countries across Africa and the Middle East.
- This was the first distribution deal in Australia between an esports operator and a major telco
- Gregory Stevens, CEO of Emerge Gaming has said that this is only the first in a number of partnerships in the making and that the company is presently in discussion with other significant parties and international telcos
- As of the 7th of October, MTN Arena has registered 25000 subscribers and continues to grow its registered userbase and generate daily revenue. Emerge is continuing its global rollout strategy targeting MTN's 22 countries and 250 million subscribers and other MNOs
- Phase 2 of the MTN Arena markeeting campaign commences in October 2020 with media campaigns dedicated to driving user adoption of the MTN Arena platform. The platform will be promoted through a series targeted digital campaigns across multiple digital channels.
- CEO, Gregory Stevens commented: “The MTN Arena platform is scaling effectively. The steady uptake by users demonstrates the entertaining user appeal of tournaments and prizes"
MIGGSTER - Mobile- The MIGGSTER Mobile platform is expected to go live on 14 November 2020. Emerge also revealed that the tournament platform launch will serve as a precursor to the second phase launch of its Cloud Game Streaming solution, an all-in-one gaming and entertainment platform that streams games to a player’s device rather than needing to download individual titles.
- MIGGSTER Mobile is being actively promoted in a prelaunch campaign through their 12 million strong affiliate network. The promotion is set to generate large-scale product awareness with the objective of pre-registering subscriber interest. The first 5 days will exclusively offer network member affiliates the opportunity to unlock exciting members rewards by registering interest.
- As of October 2020, there are 3 million users pre-registered for MIGGSTER Mobile. This is a 1.2 million increase from the 1.8 million pre-registrations recorded on the 15th of October. Further updates to user pre-registrations will be made available to the market between this date and the date of the launch.
- Emerge has entered into an agreement with TIM to expand its online and casual eSports gaming platform to 15 countries and 150 new markets, guaranteeing a minimum of 100000 subscribers in first 6 months. If TIM doesnt meet this target it will pay out 50% of the total prize money on offer. Emerge will be responsible for operating the platform, while TIM will take responsibility for marketing the platform.
- By hitting the 100,000 subscriber milestone, Emerge’s platform stands to rake in monthly recurring revenue of USD$850,000 (~AUD$1.2 million). The resulting monthly recurring revenue translates to an annual recurring revenue potential of $US10.2million (~$A14.4million). Emerge will earn 64.5% net revenue from the platform at this minimum subscription level.
- MIGGSTER Mobile subscription fee is USD$8.50 (~AUD$12.00) per month. The value proposition is that subscribers can enter into tournaments involving their favourite mobile social games, using their skills to earn rewards, and win prizes, and participate in a minimum aggregate prize pool of USD$500,000 (~AUD$700,00).
- CSO of TIM has commented the following:“We are really excited about this collaboration and are looking forward tosee it go live in November. It’s a true game changer for us and all our trustedmembers. I truly believe that online gaming on mobile devices will be agreat success for everyone involved. And we could not have asked for abetter business partner than Emerge Gaming in this promising jointventure. We have the most ambitious and fastest growing sales force in theworld while Emerge Gaming delivers outstanding technology solutions andcontent.”
MIGGSTER – Cloud Game Streaming / MIGGSTER Premium- The partnership between Emerge and TIM will take a phased approach, with the first phase MIGGSTER Mobile launch being the precursor to a planned second phase collaboration. Emerge’s Cloud Game Streaming (premium) product is expected to launch in Q1 next year under the MIGGSTER Premium brand. Further information on the second phase to follow in the coming weeks.
- MIGGSTER - Cloud Game Streaming (premium) product is expected to host premium content and games that are in strong demand but further information from this is yet to be released to the market.
Other prospects and noteworthy points- Emerge Gaming together with Viacom International Media Networks Africa will develop a Nickelodean eSports Gaming Platform called "NickX" based on Emerge's ArcadeX technology
- Emerge has signed billing and distribution agreements with Mondia Media (potential access to over 1 billion subscribers) and WorldPlay for access to ArcadeX.
- Substantial holder LTL Capital Pty Ltd increased their holding from 37.6M shares to just under 50M on 14/09/2020
- Substantial holder VBS Exchange Pty Ltd increased their holding from 46.1M shares to 55M shareson 17/09/2020
- There should be some announcements coming in Q42020 and Q12021 which could be catalysts for further SP movement. The market is moving based on upcoming rollout, but is not necessarily taking into account other present revenue sources (that are growing) and future partnerships between now and next year.
Comments on broader market and related topics
- Microsoft ISV partnership extends across american and european markets and with MTN groups presence in Africa and the Middle East and the MIGGSTER rollout, EM1 is positioning itself for very widespread market coverage
- Emerge is looking to capture a large chunk of the mobile gaming market, which is now worth USD$68.5 billion (with 10% YoY growth) and encompasses 2.4 billion mobile gamers globally.
- 5G rollout will improve data transmission rates for streaming services for the estimated 2.4 billion mobile gamers across the world
- Emergence of cloud gaming and streaming services provides the right market environment for success, as opposed to developing these products before the infrastructure can handle the demand from users/subscribers
- The wider market is starting to see eSports as a serious industry, this is reflected by the inception of a new ETF focused entirely on eSports (VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF ASX:ESPO).
Note there has been alot of price action during trading on the 16th and 19th of October, so take these with a pinch of salt, but I wanted to include them incase anyone is up early before pre-open today, and because TA is just fun anyway.
- VWAP for 19th of October was 8c up from VWAP of 5.4c on the 16th
- MACD crosses occurred multiple times during trading as buying momentum was able to withstand short-term profit taking. On close it appears that the MACD may be on its way to cross over the moving average again. If we see a MACD cross early in tommorows open, it should start the days trading off well.
- Support levels and resistance levels are not clear, and this will be more evident tommorow, and throughout the week, with buy volume possible increasing due to news spreading through the wider market. This will likely be balanced by some profit taking from long-term holders, so we may see some retracement depending on the difference between buy and sell momentum
- A brief and very speculative chart is below (also posted in the EM1 chart section) but again, take with a pinch of salt as this is only intra-day for the 19th of October. The dotted lines indicate a more conservative trend assuming there is buy volume present, and the solid blue line is a much more optimistic trend assuming a strong buy momentum, early MACD cross and building of support levels during morning trading.
Comment on affiliate marketing strategy from our CEO
Some people have expressed concern about the affiliate marketing strategy. I think it is a smart move and avoids competitor manipulation, which is a big risk heading up to a major launch. I personally think that this form of marketing significantly de-risks the chance of an undersubscribed launch by avoiding manipulation by major competitors and conflicting corporate interests for major marketing firms.
Gregory Stevens, CEO of Emerge Gaming, commented:
“Traditional online digital marketing channels, such as Google Ads and Facebook, are saturated by competition and represent an expensive way to market digital products globally. Affiliate network marketing communities provide a non-traditional marketing channel in which communities can get paid for their sales efforts. We have found that the incentive-based sales payments represent a strong motivational drive to incentivise ambassadors of MIGGSTER and other premium quality digital products. This is an innovative and disruptive marketing strategy. It affords affiliates the opportunity to be salespeople and ambassadors of a social gaming and eSports product whilst earning an income for their sales efforts is creating much needed opportunities for income earning in the uncertain times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is empowerment of a community and removes reliance on traditional digital marketing channels by both Emerge and the affiliates alike.”
Comments on Risk
To avoid sounding like an upramper I will highlight the risks I am considering here. I will highlight these risks before my opinion on the potential upside to this stock. While I consider these risks acceptable and unlikely, you may not, and others may disagree, and I welcome discussion on these points. Always invest only what you can afford to lose, and DYOR. The following are the two risks I can see so far
- Conversion rate that is less than what the market expects - Now I don't know what the market expects. Some calculations here today assuming 1% conversion are quite compelling, but is 1% conservative, realistic? We don't know yet. I think as investors if we set our expectations reasonably then this is better. Bear in mind that 1% of 3 million pre-subscriptions is 30000 subscriptions. Since this is less than 100000 subscriptions, the agreement with TIM stipulates that TIM would pay 50% of the prize winnings. I am of the opinion that TIM is pushing hard to at least meet their goal of 100000 subscriptions which would be over 3% of the current pre-registrations. So I am forming a conservative estimate of between 3-5% conversion rate, but that is purely my own estimate. I think it helps to have a baseline with which to compare the announcements when they arrive. Now note that the pre-registration numbers are likely to increase heading up to the launch, so these numbers/percentages will be revised. Suffice to say if the market is disappointed in the uptake, it may cause some flat trading or a drop in the share price, however I think that on the back of a successful launch, with possibility of further uptake, and the release of MIGGSTER Premium, this risk is minimal IMO
- Issues affecting the upcoming launch - including delays or unexpected happenings that may affect the launch. I believe this to be unlikely but it is still to be considered. This may include IT infrastructure issues, scalability issues if demand is too large, competitors announcements or efforts to impact the launch. There are probably some I am missing, so feel free to add to discussion. Most companies like Emerge run soft-launches that may not be announced to the market, to test functionality and performance on a small scale, so I fully expect this to occur even if we don't get wind of it, and I expect Emerge to be fully prepared come launch date. Regarding scalability if demand is high enough, I think that this revolves around the testing of the server environment, load balancing, appropriate security (avoiding DDOS disruption) and other considerations. I feel confident that both the company and the technology in the market is sufficiently capable of dealing with this. Scalability is more important for the future rollout of MIGGSTER premium, as we need efficient distribution of high-bandwidth content. Ubiquity and increased efficiency of cloud services and the 5G rollout for better connection speeds for the infrastructure backbone situate EM1 well for success leading into next years rollout of MIGGSTER premium, which will need fast content delivery for premium games. Our current partnership with Microsoft for the Azure platform is a key part of a good strategy to provide this IMO and we can discuss more on this later.
Comments on potential upside- Increasing numbers of preregistrations being positive catalysts for SP movement and support levels in the weeks preceeding the launch on 14th November 2020
- Sufficient conversion rate for MIGGSTER Mobile launch to meet market expectations or exceed them (i.e. a fiscally significant number of pre-registrations stay registered and use the service)
- Lead up to MIGGSTER Premium for AAA game content distribution, this is a large reason I am in this stock, and on the back of a successful MIGGSTER mobile launch, market confidence will likely support this launch
- Fiscal reporting for Q42020 and Q1/Q22021 showing in clear figures the start of real revenue, which will bring more conservative investors that are focused on fundamentals into the fold
- Future partnerships to increase market penetration
I see a long position as favourable here, but I can understand the long term holders here locking in profits, so that shouldn't worry anyone in my opinion, some holders have been here for a while and are on 10 baggers already. I see Emerge gaming as becoming the market darling on the ASX for Esports, and in a booming industry, this feels alot like APT to me, if the company can pull off their marketing campaign, and a successful launch heading into next year. I am on a long term view of 14-20c heading up to launch date, or possible post-launch, with further increases in the SP heading into the launch of MIGGSTER premium. The combination of mobile gaming for monetary prizes and social competition is a potent combination, and on the back of this, offering cloud distributed, on-demand gaming via streaming (also with prizes and the social competition element) is a game changer.
As always DYOR, and this is all my own opinion so do not take it as financial advice. GLTAH
(20min delay)