Your analysis is sound. I must admit I glossed over Cath's email and missed the reference to 'exploration ' drilling; I assumed she was talking about SNEs 5 and 6. Curious that she would talk about further exploration drilling in terms of certainty of outcome, while not referencing appraisals that we know will succeed (find oil at a minimum).
'Soon', we have come to realise, means anytime in the next several millennia in O&G, so I wouldn't necessarily be expecting anything this week!
I'm sure most of us here see 'Shareholder value' in terms of a multiple bagger to reward our considerable pain - and that might yet happen - but a reference back to the strike prices for FAR staff options shows the Board envisages a more modest increase as being most likely (in the absence of a left field event, presumably).
Ksingh's post today of the Upstream Africa article hints at the most likely source of such an event. Allowing for the questionable veracity of some of these articles, it seems to me this one is at least broadly correct based on the level of legal disputes we are seeing as Senegal firms as the global exploration hotspot. The Government makes no secret of its intention to install Total as the premier developer, but seemingly will need to blast out incumbent junior licence holders in order to achieve its aim. My thinking is clouded by self-interest, but it seems to me that as the basin pioneer with membership of the JV that broke open the market, FAR is more likely to find itself a beneficiary of a Government cleanout rather than a victim.
As a shareholder, I only hope we are spending shitloads of capital on high-class lawyers at present. I'm told we've employed America's top O&G law firm. Let's hope that's right and that they're in form.
OOO
FAR Price at posting:
7.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)