Seems still more likely than not - delays have been frustrating...

Seems still more likely than not - delays have been frustrating but created a good trading opportunity over the last couple of months.

Dingyi's 6 months accounts were released 25/11 which I understood was a necessary part of the HSX process for Dingyi to finalise the shareholder circular.

The Criterion recommendation on 13/11 summed it up well:

Elemental Minerals (ELM) 44.5c

IF our mail's right, there is a quickie 50 per cent profit on offer for anyone willing to punt the Hong Kong-listed Dingyi Group's 66c-a-share cash offer for the potash developer goes ahead.

We take it that the main impediment is that the Honkers bourse has to be satisfied about the financial viability of the enlarged entity, but has been tardy with its deliberations.

Elemental's object of interest is its 93 per cent-owned Sintoukola project in the Republic of Congo.

Potash prices hit a three-year low of $US320 a tonne in September, then edged up after an acrimonious bust-up between Russia's Uralkali (the word's biggest producer) and partner Belaruski of Belarus.

With a touch of old Soviet Union flair, Belarus responded by arresting Uralkali's chief executive, and at last report he was still banged up in a Minsk jail.

As far as industry health goes, the implosion of the informal cartel is positive. While it's normal for a target's shares to trade under the odds, Elemental stock is at an extravagant 34 per cent discount.

Another likely cause of this is the poor record of state-owned Chinese bidders executing local resource takeovers. Dingyi's $190m offer, pitched in July at a 45 per cent premium, has been endorsed by Elemental's board -- with the notable exception of chief executive Iain Macpherson.

Given the HK delays, Dingyi yesterday extended its offer until January 31 next year.

Criterion deduces that a spec buy on this one is Elemental, my dear Watson."