Looking back, this is a gun post @The_Oracle It would be good to...

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Dungiven

1,700 Posts.

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04/11/17

17:03

Post #: 28502157
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Originally posted by The_Oracle ↑

A couple of good points SEAH. Richard Irvin did indicate at the AGM the merged group is expected to be profitable by early CY19, which also implies RWL is currently loss making.
Having done some work on peer comp multiples of water treatment companies, they vary significantly and it depends on the mix construction and recurring earnings, and whether the stock is profitable.
I suspect RWL is mostly construction, though the intention is to move to recurring, however it is much more difficult to win recurring style projects, as most customers prefer to own their projects.
Imo, a fair multiple is around 2.5x revenue - ~A$325m market cap. If you account for the additional 100.5m shares and the cap raise, the up side to the share price is not that significant on valuation. However ...
If you assume revenue keeps growing expodentially, then so does the valuation and also potential for a re-rating if they can grow the recurring revenue base. Sentiment may drive the share price in the short term, then I think it will drift down until proof of further revenue growth is presented (or material orders in China in the 4Q 2017). Could be volatile in the short term.
If the technology truly is disruptive and RWL is able to bring EMC's products to the world, then the upside is very large, though the time frame to real share price appreciation is still some time off, and still hinges on success in China (early CY18 imo), though RWL is a very good move.

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Looking back, this is a gun post @The_Oracle

It would be good to hear your thoughts on where we are now, and on the period ahead.

FLC Price at posting: 60.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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