Exactly Vesupria; thanks.
Oh, and Bendom, I didn't see you post until now.
You asked about the dividend payout ratio over the next 12 to 18 months while refining at Kurnell is being shut down and transformed into an import terminal.
I can almost guarantee you won't see DPS OF $1.00 in 2014. I think you'll simply see the dividend being maintained at current levels (23 cps final and 17 cps interim).
One needs to remember that this is a very significant capital project for CTX and for that reason, as a shareholder I am agnostic as to whether I get more cash back in the short term or once the project is completed.
I think the fact is a telling one that this company will over the next 12 months be undertaking the most significant investment program in its history and will be incurring capital expenditure that is equal to almost one-fifth of its market cap, and yet Net Debt-to-EBITDA will barely change compared to the start of the project, and will end up being a very comfortable around 1.0 to 1.1 times, I estimate.
I think this speaks volumes for the cash generating capability of this business even today, but that will be increasingly so once it moves out of refining into a purer distribution model.
As I said I my inaugural post on CTX soon after making my first purchase of the stock, the only reservation I have with my investment is that I think I might be 6 or 12 months too early, and that it might end up being a bit of an opportunity cost.
But, hey, I don't believe its possible to time these things perfectly. I've always believed that once I have conviction in an investment thesis, I should act on it.
Hope that clears up your dividend question.
Like all things when it comes to investing, I think you should never rely on what you read or hear from third parties, but you should always get your answers from doing the work yourself from forts principles.
You certainly cannot ever rely solely on what brokers tell you.
Cam
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