Just to clarify, I never said the stale volume was retail-driven.
The volume we’re seeing appears to comes from Morgan's. They seem to be the primary source based on available broker data.
If you look back at EMV broker reports starting from 2020, you’ll see that Morgan's was buying heavily, even into the low $4.xx range. In hindsight, that buying activity appears as though it was poorly timed given the company’s stage of development. Running the price up that early created an overhang that has weighed on the stock ever since.
Rather than a calculated long-term position, it seems the buying was short-sighted. The result has been years of steady selling as those positions, now deep in the red, have taken advantage of periods of liquidity and brief upward
movement to exit. That ongoing exit pressure has been a major contributor to the stock’s sustained resistance to an organic re-rate to an appropriate valuation given the de-risked nature of EMV's current life cycle.
In my opinion this is not a case of retail capitulation. It is the long, drawn-out consequence of poor earlier positioning by a broker that lacked a realistic view of the company’s progress and valuation at the time.
The good news is that it appears there are almost nothing left to sell from this mob. Once this overhang is fully cleared, the path should be much cleaner for the valuation to more appropriately reflect the true value of EMV ( IMO At this stage at least 5-6 times the current valuation )
As a disclaimer this is only an opinion based on the information available from broker reports
EMV Price at posting:
$1.95 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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