(disclaimer - I am not an expert, so DYOR)
my understanding of the situation is this.
- coys which own in excess of the Takeover threshold of 20%, can only purchase 3% of the outstanding shares every 6 mths. (that process is called the Creep provisions)
- IF they go over that limit, they MUST launch a takeover bid for the balance of the shares, at the highest price they paid in the last paid (or something like that)
- the 6 mth period started when TIO Offer closed.
- TIO is not precluded from launching a new takeover now that the last one has closed. The only limitation is that TIO stated that it would not launch a new takeover in the near term (or some such wording). So they will abide by that, because they can get in trouble under the "Truth in Takeover" rules.
- these rules apply same as to a Takeover (on-market or off market) a Scheme of Arrangement. A Merger is just a description, not a separate process. A Merger could be conducted by way of a Scheme or a Takeover - but usually by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.
As a totally separate issue I would remind everyone of what we all were told previously:
1. the development of PIOP was only viable as an "Integrated development" !!! We were told that over and over, and documented in all sorts of formal documents.
2. We were told that the reason we should accept the Option Agreement proposal was that PIOP was not viable because:
a ) price of iron ore needed to be $80/t ? ( I think that was the figure - and I think it was US$?)
b) the cost of transporting the ore to port via BBIG was uneconomic! at net $20/t it made PIOP unviable.
3. without a doubt the "kingmaker" is still OCJ. If they bail out then the rest of FMS minority s/h will follow. Some posters will scream and claim to wait for production, but once OCJ goes then FMS will assuredly get to 90%, and then Compulsory Acquisition.
Everybody has a sale price.
- shareholders do --- (it is just a question of how much for each individual)
- TIO also does.
So don't discount AO's scenarios, because anything can happen.
A Merger of BBIG and FMS makes sense, but on what terms?
I could easily envisage TIO packaging up BBIG and their s/h in FMS, and flogging it off to the Chinese. Why, because TIO will have obtained all the approvals (which would be worth s###loads to a Chinese purchaser), they would have all the detailed plans, costings etc etc. So a package deal. Also the Chinese would use their own steel, they are experts in rail construction and above-rail equipment. Also they would not get involved with parties like Clive Palmer! The Chinese could own and control the entire value chain.
If Todd sold out, and Chinese purchased TIO's holding of 52% in FMS, the Chinese would bid for the balance of the shares in FMS. And you guys would surely get a huge windfall!
its just a question of price.
looking good.
all just imho.
cheers
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