LYC 1.89% $7.53 lynas rare earths limited

End of Financial Year, page-10

  1. 7,651 Posts.
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    First what movement in Ce and LA? Ce is up 8% in two weeks it is now back to where it was in late March April La has not moved in same period. You can say it, but charts do not agree. Now go look at my post Post #: 25579296 I will summarize it to you IF La and CE both went up 50% instantly yesterday. And Lynas output of La and Ce Doubled yesterday and both stayed that way till July 2020, When Mt K Debt is due, it would raise a total of 20M new AU$ Assuming COP did not go up at all with double production. That is 7% of the total debt. So how much is this imaginary price rise of yours in La and CE going to help? Now the NdPr price rise is nice and I am buying. Why don't you calculate the profits? You can come up with your own conditions but here is the ones that I would use. Assume ND PR without VAT is $42 KG right now. If the price that AUSHEDS says is sustainable of US 65 /KG is reached smoothly by December 2019 and Nd Pr Production rises smoothly to 1600 KT / Q during the same period. How much profit will NdPr generate by by July 2020 to clear JARE DEBT? Will it be enough? So yes prices are great. Do you have any idea if it is enough? Can you list a reasonable set of conditions that even gets close. Do not even include paying down payables. ALEB, Overburden removal, or 2 or 3 mining champagnes. Just assume all profits are used for Mt K

    According to Lynas
    "the Bondholders, as a group, would hold 3,523,209,303 of 7,141,948,543 shares on issue"
    What does SEVEN BILLION shares do to EPS and EQuity per share. Please put some sort of numbers behind your claims. Not just it is going up so everything is OK. Do you have a clue as to what is needed? Lynas sold 3437T of product in Q3 Lets assume Lynas sells 20KT for year ending June 2020. Lets Make NdPr 6KT of that. What do REE Prices have to be if there are 7 Billion shares to make 1C per share. 5C a share?

    All it takes is a little multiplication and division to know what is needed. Try it.

    Do not forget they loss 67 Million in H1 or 0.37c a share so first you have to get even. Lets see 67 times 2 is 134M. They will not lose nearly that much in H2 but the run rate for H1 was 134M /year.
 
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