End of year share price prediction, page-5

ASSUME FOR DECEMBER 2024
1. Spot price - $200/LB ??? No one knows this
2. PEN starts production in that month with 1 mill LB/year (starting at this level)
3. PEN all in costs $45/LB
4. 350,000 LB (35%) contracted at $70; less costs so profit = $25/LB ie 350k x 25 = $8.75mill
5. 650,000 LB (65%) sold at spot; less costs so profit = $165/LB ie 650k x 165 = 107.25 mill
6. Total annual profit = $116mill
7. Annual profit per share = 116m/2200m = $0.053
So assuming each share returns 5.3c each year then what are the shares worth noting that there maybe further resource reserves and longer mine life? My guess is the share price could be 40c by Dec 24; But as production doubles over the next 3 years to 2027 the sp may reach 60c. All very speculative and assumes a trouble free operation and market buoyancy. Nothing ever goes to plan. Apply Murphy’s Law: “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.”

I have no idea what PEN market capitalisation will be. If you compare it with BOE which at start of production has a current MC of $2,240mill and if PEN gets same MC, then PEN would be $1/share.

I am not prepared to bet on this.

But despite my concerns about the poor quality of management I bought some because there will be profit. As far as management are concerned, PEN signed a poorly drafted contract allowing termination of contract with just minimal notice. This alone delayed production by 1 year and required massive capital raising. I am also concerned about PEN preferring “sophisticated investors” getting hundreds of millions of shares in preference to current shareholders and before current shareholders receive a minimal number. The sophisticated investors are not sophisticated at all they simply have lots of cash. They then lend the shares (for a fee) to shortens who destroy the price for retail investors. After the shorting is done the sophisticated investors sell for a super profit after only being in the shares for a few months. That ain’t sophisticated. There is only 1 person to blame for this debacle and that’s Wayne. He is just lucky the U price has rocketed.