end the megaphone politics over china

Richard Nixon went to China in the middle of the Cold War, the theory goes, because only a communist-bashing conservative US President could possibly negotiate with Chairman Mao without coming across to voters as a weak-kneed appeaser.

'Only Nixon could go to China' is the counter-intuitive rule of modern politics that says that hard but necessary decisions often (and often must) emerge from the opposite end of the political spectrum. A good example last week was President Obama's decision to approve offshore oil drilling; another was free-market reforms overseen by Labor governments in Australia and New Zealand in the 1980s.

Back to China. After Australia's 2007 federal election, it seemed fair to assume that electing a Mandarin-speaking former Beijing-based diplomat as Prime Minister would do wonders for Australia's relationship with China. Just as the Chinese economy was moving past overdrive, and demand for Australia's resources was surging, Kevin Rudd, a bilingual China expert, moved into the Lodge – truly a leader for the geopolitical times.

The reality is self-evidently different, with Sino-Australia relations hitting a low-point. China has certainly aided our economic fortunes – acting as a bullet-proof vest for Australia in the global financial gunfight of 2008 and since – but this has been despite the state of bilateral relations, not because of them. The Rudd government's handling of diplomatic flare-ups with our biggest and fastest-growing trading partner has appeared ham-fisted at best. It is as if the Nixon/China rule is operating in reverse: perhaps to counter nascent voter concerns about Rudd's Chinese affiliations, his government is overcompensating. Is Labor's calculation that deft, nuanced and culturally tuned-in diplomacy is bad politics? It is not hard to picture rabble-rousing in the current election year if the Prime Minister remained a favourite in Beijing.

I was talking with a group of young Australian leaders some weeks ago, when a young woman observed that the problem with Australia's foreign policy posture is that we are a kitten that sees the reflection of lion. This was an astute observation because perception is currency in global politics, and the world is in a state of radical fluctuation. The GFC has fast-tracked China and India and slow-tracked most of the rest.

China’s arrival as a dominant economic superpower is neither surprising nor unwelcome, but it happened at warp speed. For the entrenched world powers – including Australia – this is forcing a rethink. The prevailing view of China until the GFC was that its economic growth would inevitably springboard to a greater political and policy alignment with the west. China’s entry to the WTO inspired Bill Clinton to declare at the time that political liberalisation would follow “just as inevitably [as] the Berlin Wall fell”. This demonstrably hasn’t happened – and western-style liberal democracy is no closer to taking root in China than it was 20 years ago.

Instead, the Chinese leadership has found new confidence, especially in light of the policy failures exposed by the GFC. In the words of US China expert, James Mann, writing in The New Republic last week, this assertiveness can take the form of “edgy obstreperousness” on the world stage. Its dismissive attitude on the Stern Hu case; its bold iconoclasm at Copenhagen; its complete rejection of the currency arguments. China is in the process of coming to terms with its own strength. And it’s hard not to come across as a bully when you’re a foot taller than anyone else in the playground.

China and Australia have economic and political ties strong enough to easily withstand a skirmish or two; there are commercial, as well as personal, relationships that reach back decades and that show no sign of waning. This is nevertheless a period of instability characterised by missteps and hubris on both sides – and the consequences for both countries are too great to allow a drift towards stalemate. It is time to disarm the megaphones. We have an able Foreign Minister in Stephen Smith. Our ambassador, Geoff Raby, is first-class. This is how the bridge-building must begin: quiet, strategic, proportionate.

We are in the midst of an historic reordering. This is a testing time for leaders where the seductive demands of short-term politics will compete with the long-term national interest, in Beijing as much as Canberra. It is critical that China emerges from this tumult as a strategic partner for Australia, but it is not a foregone conclusion.

Michael Roux is chairman, Australian Davos Connection which is hosting the 2010 ADC Future Summit in Melbourne 24-25 May. His blog is Debates Worth Having.



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