enercom valuation of ssn

In the New York presentation SSN has an estimation of 36.1 Million Barrels of oil for the Hawk Springs project giving a total of $6.84 ADS.

I used the same format as SSN with the Enercom estimations for the Roosevelt Project which has a price of $9.44 ADS.

This figure is based on the assumption that SSN purchase tranches 1 and 2 with FPEC as a partner with 26,800 net acres or 66.66 WI to SSN within the 40,000 gross acres.

With 3 wells per 640 acre sections SSN would have 1.2 Million Barrels oil per section.
With 41.875 sections multiply by 1.2M = 50 MMBO

I have used the same formula for Tranche 3 (optional)
50,000 gross acres
SSN 66.6WI 33,330 Net acres
3 wells per 640 acre sections = 1.2 Million Barrels oil per section
52 sections multiply by 1.2M = 62.4 MMBO




Hawk Springs Project SSN Estimations

Assuming 413,000 barrels per well

Contingent reserve 36.1 million bbls

NPV 10 is $18.90 per bbl

Total NPV $682 million

Per ADS $6.84



Roosevelt Project EnerCom Estimations Tranche 1&2

Assuming 400,000 barrels per well

Contingent reserve 50 million bbls

NPV 10 is $18.84 per bbl

Total NPV $942 million (99.8 Million ADSs)

Per ADS $9.44




Roosevelt Project Tranche 3

Assuming 400,000 barrels per well

Contingent reserve 62.4 million bbls

NPV 10 is $18.84 per bbl

Total NPV $1.175 Billion (99.8 Million ADSs)

Per ADS $11.77



Enercom with a risk factor of 25% probability of success gives you their figure of $2.36 ads. I think this is a very conservative number considering the Hawk Springs has no risk factor built in and also has no wells drilled to date.

TB wouldn't even have considered the Roosevelt project if he wasn't confident it would succeed.
The fact he has 3 different stages to purchase the 90,000 acres gives him the opportunity to build a larger slice of the Bakken over a longer period of time if needed, depending on results.

If the Hawk Springs Project delivers on its expectation and similar results for the Roosevelt Project are achieved, SSN would have a combined total of $28.05ads or(AU $1.31 cents if Aussie $ is 1.07 US) and this calculation doesnt include the possibility to develop the 3 Forks Formation, the 1200 net acres in North Dakota or any ORRI.

Even is you have a risk factor of 50% ( 200 MBOE ) for the total projects you will still have a value around 65 cents.

SSN need to prove to the market their projects are commercially viable with sustainable numbers, it will also need to put forward an updated drilling program and how it will be funded.

Once we have confirmation of well results if successful you can see the potential is huge, even at current levels it still represents excellent value.

GLTA