“The stone age came to an end, not for lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for lack of oil” (Sheikh Yamani OPEC co-founder and former Saudi Arabian oil minister)
Electricity companies around the world will begin to go bankrupt by 2018, even while they generate profits. It sounds absurd doesn’t it? However, hear me out.
By now everyone has read the headlines. “Tesla Powerwall changes everything, electricity death spiral, energy storage revolution, the Kodak moment for electricity etc.” This was the hype of 2015.
In 2016, reality set in, many households realised a $A17,999 5kW SolarEdge system with a 7kWh Tesla Powerwall would take about 17 years to pay back. These were sobering figures considering most equipment warranties are only 10-12 years. However, in just 2 years this payback equation will be radically different. It will rock the very foundations of modern society, creating and destroying fortunes across the planet.
I contend that it is not widespread adoption of energy storage that will hurt electricity utilities, but instead it is Grid Parity incumbents should be concerned about.
Grid Parity will occur in 2-3 years. Grid Parity is a clear short signal to innovative traders that the 100-year-old electricity delivery model is about to rapidly unravel. Grid Parity will be the stimulus for traders to invest in all manner of short instruments that can capitalise on the convexity that will soon occur in this space.
Algorithmic momentum trading strategies will then cause many listed utilities that are running even conservative debt ratios (30% or less) to rapidly lose market capitalisation value, sending these previously conservative debt ratios to nosebleed levels.
