After reading Davfitz's excellent post I think it's worth reposting some of the previous thread about what the reports might mean - looks very much to me like Ted E is signalling a positive outcome as Olivier suspected:
Subject HDR - re: Ching 4-4... 3 cores cut ( 0 reads - 0 replies )
Posted 08/10/02 13:55
Member Olivier211
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Strange market response to the results. I reckon that the HDR announcement is trying hard (but unsuccessfully) to tell us something!
Three cores cut over a 107 m column. Unless they specifically wanted a core in the water bearing sand, this tells me that there is a larger than expected oil column. (look at the various published maps). Take the reasoning/speculation a bit further and one could come to the conclusion that:
1. the spill point in the east was mapped wrongly, or
2.the lowest sand is in a different system, or
3.the field is joined to Tevet.
And if water was encountered at 2706 m, why drill another 200 m and keep drilling? There's more to it than what it seems, at first glance, to be the case !!
Cheers,
Oli
Read the red below
Sometimes you're the seagull - sometimes you're the statue.
Voluntary Disclosure: Position Short Term Rating: No View Long Term Rating: Buy
Subject HDR - re: Ching 4-4... 3 cores cut ( 1 reads - 0 replies )
Posted 08/10/02 14:30
Member abuman
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Absolutely agree about the market response to what must surely be a positive announcment, even the most pessimestic observer would see it as neutral at this stage. There are some nervous nellies following this stock, and probably rightfully so as a significant number have been burnt previously with just bad timing on their purchases. Getting back to the announcment we know that they don't core just for the sake of it and indicators are required for the coring to commence.
Agree that something's up.
Abuman
read the red stuff
Voluntary Disclosure: Position Short Term Rating: Buy Long Term Rating: Hold
Subject HDR - The way Louie sees it. ( 0 reads - 0 replies )
Posted 08/10/02 15:39
Member king louie
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I reckon that hdr is at fire sale price for today only and the price will creep up in anticipation of next Tuesdays positive Ann. Then Thon is supposedly the lowest Risk drill of this program which means 5 out of 6 (if you count Carbine as a failure, I do.) Cliffhead drills are now uderway, we might get a nice surprise there to fund future offshore drilling and then there's next years 6 month drilling program in Mauritania that starts around Feb.
It's anyone's guess what the share price will be this time next year...but feel free to have a dig???
Cheers Louie
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No one shall be rich except those who understand it.
(My opinion only, Read the red stuff)
Voluntary Disclosure: Position Short Term Rating: Buy Long Term Rating: Buy
Subject HDR - re: Ching 4-4... 3 cores cut ( 0 reads - 0 replies )
Posted 08/10/02 18:16
Member zacharia
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3 cores cut from 2599m – 2706m ie 107m. What if anything can we infer?
Neutral spin: Cores would be cut regardless of whether any oil has been found in Chinguetti-4-4, simply to provide data about reservoir sands that were not taken in Chinguetti-1. The idea would be to correlate the Chinguetti-4-4 logs with actual core samples, and use this correlation to infer the characteristics of the reservoirs in the oil bearing section of Chinguetti-1, and perhaps extrapolate across the whole structure.
Positive spin: Last year Chinguetti-1 hit an 86m gross oil column in the well with TD = 2620m. Say the bottom oil in Ching 1 was just above TD at 2610m and top oil at 2610 – 86 = 2524m; if all cores in Ching-4-4 were in oil-bearing reservoir section then the overall oil column as determined by Ching-1 and Ching-4-4 could be 2706 - 2524 = 182m. This number would be correspondingly larger if the Ching-1 oil column was actually higher up in the well than the 2524 – 2610 range assumed above.
Finally, remember this is an appraisal well looking to find the oil-water contact and was therefore drilled out towards the edge of the field. Any oil column it does hit will quite likely be thinner than in the other two wells. The main thing is that it could probably be (more or less) ADDED onto the Chinguetti-1 figure to give a TOTAL column size.
Voluntary Disclosure: Position Short Term Rating: Hold Long Term Rating: Hold
HDR
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