Energy Storage Devices, the real driver behind graphite’s potential;

Originally posted by Simmpa ↑

I’m of the opinion a number of threads, forecasters and journalists/economists fail to take into account the changing fundamentals caused by ongoing geo-political tensions. This, along with electricity’s forecasted demand increase and efficiency requirements are where I believe graphite’s potential is rooted. I believe it only takes a brief look at the current geo-political climate to make an educated guess on the future demand for graphite.

Countries are already investing in energy storage. It almost completely resolves the intermittent issues renewable energy’s like wind and solar cause (see below paragraph and link: The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), not only that but it also adds to the efficiency of current base-load producers. They’ll no longer be required to power up or down, saving millions in wastage each year. They’ll be able to re-charge energy storage devices while we sleep and slowly release the saved power throughout the day. It’ll also mean fewer power plants are required for base-load supply because the batteries will be rundown during the day.

An interesting piece by the US Department Of Energy is below, I’ve noted some highlights;
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/12/f5/Grid Energy Storage December 2013.pdf
Page 8, California is establishing 50MW of storage by 2021. Additionally they proposed procurement targets totalling 1325MW. Other states are following their example.
Page 10, Energy storage is poised to grow dramatically… The energy storage business could grow from $200m in 2012 to a $19b industry by 2017.
Page 15, China and India are also pursuing energy storage programs. In one example India is aggressively pursuing energy storage as a secure power resource for more than 300,000 telecom towers and announced a $40m contract in July 2013 for Li-ion battery energy storage.
Page 18, confirms Li-ion (as lead), sodium sulphur and lead acid as the most widely used. Li-ion has 15 installed storage facilities with a capacity over 1MW with the largest being 40MW (as at 2013).

SAFT already have large scale Li-ion batteries designed to regulate flow and assist storage capacity commercially available. The Germans are currently running a pilot program on Pellworm Island with 20MW of Li-ion installed capacity designed to act as a blueprint for a future decentralised energy system. http://www.saftbatteries.com/press/press-releases/saft-megawatt-scale-li-ion-energy-storage-technology-help-make-eon’s-smart-grid

The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology demonstrates a self-sufficient solar-Li-ion battery system that can release as and when required, on/off-peak.
http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects/1292

Globally there are 295 Li-ion facilities with 78 being in Europe alone (as at 2013). The Europeans are looking to better manage their renewable energy surpluses and wean themselves off Russian fossil fuel dependence. Something made much more urgent of late with the German’s aiming for 70-80% of power production coming from renewables.
http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects?utf8=✓&technology_type_sort_eqs=Lithium Ion Battery&technology_type_sort_eqs_category=Electrochemical&technology_type_sort_eqs_subcategory=Lithium Ion Battery&country_sort_eq=&state_sort_eq=&kW=&kWh=&service_use_case_inf=&ownership_model_eq=&status_eq=&siting_eq=&show_unapproved={}&order_by=&sort_order=&search_page=1&size_kw_ll=&size_kw_ul=&size_kwh_ll=&size_kwh_ul
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...enewables-future/story-fnay3ubk-1227039060594

Given electric vehicles require up to 70 kg of graphite per car battery with 300 tonnes required for a MW hr of electrical storage capacity, you quickly realise the scale of the multiples involved. http://www.breakawaydigger.com/Article Digger April 2014/Article 8 April.pdf

Australia alone has the potential for a commercially viable energy storage market of 3,000MW by 2030, thanks largely to the fringe networks of remote towns and mines. http://www.energetics.com.au/insigh...lectricity-storage-battery-solar-pv-renewable

It is my belief that while Electrical Vehicles will prove an important market, they are the mere tip of the iceberg. Energy Storage Devices, such a large scale Li-ion batteries are where the even larger growth potential for graphite will come from. Every major country (see U.S D.O.E attachment) is investing in some form, and in deed multiple forms, of Energy Storage Devices. Furthermore, a good portion of this technology is proven or being proved as we speak and rolled out. A modern government will never allow their people to run afoul of an energy-hording-country. I would suggest that we’ll see a number of large scale Energy Storage programs approved in the coming 3-6-12 months with rollouts within 1-2-5 years.

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Thanks, Simmpa, for your excellent summary of the potential for Energy Storage Devices. They clearly have a big future.

However, less clear is the likely impact on the market for graphite. There are two major questions which remain to be answered, before we can describe Energy Storage as the way of the future - the killer app, if you like - for the graphite industry. They are:

1. How much graphite will Energy Storage Devices need?
2. When will they need it?

If we are looking at these things from a business point of view, and not just gee-whiz technology, it is really important that we be able to compare the consumption of graphite in Energy Storage with that from other existing, and near-term, applications. Unless we can put numbers on these things, our discussion doesn't mean much. To illustrate this, look at the recent sale by SYR to Asmet, of 100K-150K tonnes per year, as a recarburiser in foundry applications. Measured against total current graphite consumption of about one million tonnes, that is clearly significant. (10-15% on top of current world consumption) Even more important is the question of where this new application can lead. The SYR announcement (30 April) pointed out that the carbon market for gray iron production is 1.38 to 1.84 million tonnes per year, and that for ductile iron, which can likewise use graphite as its carbon alloy, the carbon market is 750K to one million tonnes per year. So we have a clear line on the potential growth, via those specific applications. These are the kind of hard figures needed for a business decision.

We need to measure any new application both by comparing its consumption with existing graphite usage, and by quantifying the market, to get some idea of what the potential really is.

Last, but by no means least, we need some serious estimate of when a new application will actually materialise. Is it something in the here and now? Or is it something we expect, or hope for, in one or five, or ten years?

If Energy Storage is going to become the "real driver" behind graphite marketing, we do need to nail down solid answers to the key questions of How much?, and When?

Cheers, Prime1