Enough on Trials let's discuss commercial realities.

Anyone who has worked in or followed Pharma or Biotech understand that trials provide only one part of the story and are never free or extreme varied opinions about results,design, sub groups and statistics etc by medical , scientific, statatians , analyst and active HC experts.
What somehow does not get much discussions on HC and is far more predictive of a companies success and ultimately how it is valued is, is the company set up to with the right sales and marketing clout to help convince both Payers and Medical profession to use the product for their patients in the countries that it is targeting.
So on the assumption that Sirtex manufactures quality products today and there is a Target Market of size X ,what share can it command today and in the future.
Clearly X is affected by the outcomes of trials, and has been overstated I believe, but for us to spend to much time tring to determine an exact value for X can be rather futile if we do not understand the competitive environment to address this target market and how well set up is our companies to compete successfully.
So what do we know, I will start with so examples from my limited knowledge,

1. BTG/Theresphere have what appears to be an identical product( ? Do we not have IP) that can address our Target Market? They also appear to be very strong at communicating their message to the medical community and can leverage a larger sales and marketing team as they have reasonable number of products to cover in this space, so more $ revenue to cover sales/marketing spend.
2. The current standard treatment are "pills" that can be prescribed quickly and easily are sold and marketed by a big Pharma giant and their product will soon go Generic, so their pricing will reduce significantly.
3. There are always newer product coming out so expect competition to increase over the next 5-10 years.

Please add to this list of potential threats to Sirtex.

What about Sirtex how are they positioned to address these and other threats, it seems already there sales growth has started to taper, not uncommon for a company that came off a low base, but the best I can tell is that they are facing competition, BTG/Therespere boasted of strong growth in this part of their business recently.

Welcome more discussion on this, as holder for this stock, I think this might be a more useful discussion at this time.