Weekly Review REE Stocks - 13th Sep 2024Here is the weekly...

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 13th Sep 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
.

.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
.

This week no new additions, so my list contains 30 REE related stocks.
.
.

How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 this week again looking to do new highs. Last week it had dropped 4%. This week it gained 4%. Looking very bullish, finished the day and week close to its high at 5626, last week 5408. So whenever it drops, people start pondering, will it drop 5%, 10% or 20%+. In early August it dropped 10% and returned. Last week it had dropped 5%. So it was open question, will it return from there or go lower. At this stage it looks like it has managed to do by 5%. So another bullish indicator, compared to last drop of 10%. Its now close to only 0.75% from its of 5669, Surely it should do it next week. Odds are good.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 16.56, last week at 22.38, so drop of nearly 25%. Previous week it had gained 50%, so now looking very good, especially also it is now below 20, a strong bull indicator.
• Sentiment Indicator had gone into Fear last week at 39, just staying a week in Greed, bypassing neutral. Current at 59, Neutral. Its a lagging indicator, so all right at this stage.
• Bitcoin was throwing a tantrum last week and had reached 54k, threatening 50k. This week, its back in its groove, currently sitting at 60k. So looks like ready to join the part which Mr Powell may soon host.
• Russell 2000 which was panicking last week, is now behaving, and playing along with other indices, rose just over 4% for the week, in line with SP 500. It has to do much more though, hopefully soon. Finished the week at 2181, last week 2091.
• Yields in line with rate cuts, sitting at 3.65, last week 3.71
• Dollar Index too going like Yields, down
• Gold, Silver, Oil - all going up, Gold at 2606, last week 2487, Silver massive gain, at 31.01, last week 27.92, lost, Oil to up at 69.24, last week 67.67. So many other are also getting ready for the party
• So overall markets which was consolidating last week, is now back. This week I feel, its - "very positive"

.
.
.
What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:

• SP 500 into crucial week now. Twice it has dropped from this level. First time 10% and this time 5%. Odds of a new high shortly has increased considerably
• Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
• Main data next week is Interest Rate decision on Wednesday night for us. Consensus is for 0.25% drop. Any other number may cause a lot of volatility, in either direction
• 
  
• Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. I have been writing that 39/40 is most critical level, where I expect to see biggest churn. It is mid way between 45 and 35, which are acting as resistance and support respectively. While dropping, it first reached 35 in first week of August. Then it took 3 weeks to reach 44.5, before it started retreating again. It again touched 35 a week back. Just based on pattern, on technicals, it should get to do another test of 45 within two weeks. Whether it can happen this week, depends on how also general markets behave, rate cut week. On Friday it finished at 40.33 - right in middle of critical zone. It had a good week, 4 greens on a row from Monday, on Friday a technical red. Finished the week around 9% up. Spot price at 79.65, just below psychological 80. It went for a day above 80, but couldn't hold. Odds of 35 being the bottom has considerably increased, twice it has been rejected from punters who have bought well that level. So my theory of End of Sep/Oct beginning for reaching towards high, theoretically is still there, but there could be some delays, lets see. Next week if it can hold 39/40 and start moving towards, that will be very positive. I am cautiously optimistic. I do trade a bit of up and down, try to pick the slight up and down to make some coins on the side, but still playing fully towards a theory that new highs are coming soon in the sector. I could be wrong, so please dyor. Lets see what happens next week.
• 
  
• Lithium Sector overview - A very good week for Li sector, in the scheme of things. Some news around CATL led to bumper day in Li stocks. On Monday, the whole sector was in panic mode. Most Li stocks making fresh 52 week lows that day. But from Wednesday things changed. Up to 20 to 30% average gains in many stocks from their lows. Friday a bit of tempering, but still stocks did well for the week. Many big stocks like LTR, PLS, MIN, LRS, WC8, INR, SYA etc doing double digits gain. So all should be good, we should have bottomed and a reversal is happening. Is that so? Firstly, if that news had not come around CATL, and LTR on 56.5, PLS 231, etc - what would have happened? Where would we have finished the week. Secondly, the rally was supported by US Li stocks, which also gained over 10% for the week, but is not supported by Ganfeng. It did join at first, rose 12% from its low, but by Friday has given back 10%. It is within 2% of its lows. The bounce effect has now evaporated for it. Will other Li stocks follow that? I still believe, unless Ganfeng joins the party, there may not be a party, I could be wrong though. Last several weeks, its making new 52 week lows, nearly every week. Spot price too is after all that euphoria, still down 2% for the week. So there is a chance we may have bottomed, chance we may be reversing, but there is no confirmation yet. There are some good signs though. Many ASX and US Li stocks are around 20% up from their lows, including ALB which I track as barometer. Also, it has shown, that one good news, a small change in sentiment to get stocks up, 30/40% within couple of days. So that is very positive for future. But the divergence with Ganfeng cannot stay. Either Ganfeng has to rise or other stocks to drop. Lets see what happens next week, a rate cut week. SP 500 doing well, so there will be support from genera markets. So if we have to reverse, timing is good. But overall I still feel extreme caution is required for any new entry to the sector, but its individual risk/reward, things can and may turn one day.
• 
  
• REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Many REE stocks were in green for the week. Like Li stocks, many REE stocks made 52 week lows on Monday, but have come back. Except WA1. Last week I wrote I had got out of WA1/BRE, not sure what is happening a big drop for WA1 this week. Both MEI/ENR though bound range, are giving signals for a reversal. Watching both very carefully and may have a dip this week. But overall its still caution, we still need to wait for confirmation, for battery sector to reverse etc.

.
.
Personally:
This week for me similar to last 5 weeks. I am still firmly into U stocks. I usually trade around one-third of my stocks, try to pick small ups and downs, like trading, more of a game, also sometimes have small wins on the side. So got out one-third on Thursday as I was thinking stocks have risen over 20% and there may be a small pullback. The sector plays a lot on technicals. There was no big fundamental reasons that U stocks dropped up to 60/70% from its recent high. There is no strong fundamental reason it is now rising. I think it is all technical play. One of the reasons I trade. I am still following my theory that we will make new highs in coming weeks (or maybe months), but odds of gaining is much higher in short to medium term. If CCJ loses 35, I will get out. If CCJ plays up and down between 35/45, I will play that. If CCJ gets over 45, I think we will be ready for new high, then I won't trade much and wait for highs. That's my play I could be wrong, I am a very small player, so please check X, You tube and dyor. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. I got out a few on Thursday/Friday, but will buy back this week if CCJ holds 39/40 level. I wrote last week I bought WC8 last week at 19.5, I let it go at 22.5 - I was not feeling comfortable. I had written last week I got out of WA1/BRE, have not yet bought back. Watching MEI/ENR in the REE sector. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE sector blindly at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there. Main health stocks - DXB (avg 26)/BOT (avg 17)/PYC (avg 7.5), Gold - PNR (avg 5.2) - , I have been writing about them for several months now, keep trading small portions and reducing average
.
.
Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week ENR played in the same range it has played for last few weeks. Tested 40, held for now. Will there be another test of 40?
• From a weekly perspective, a small gain, moved from 44.5 to 46.5. Volumes usual, no indicator there. Playing on technicals at this stage, looking like waiting for some news.
• As I wrote in sector review, I am watching MEI/ENR. Last week I let go WA1/BRE
• REE stocks that I track rose 9% for the week, so a very good week after a while, mirroring Li sector play
• REE stocks down 7% for the year, tempered the loss after a big gain this week
• Personally as I wrote over a month back, I exited my stocks. My buy average was 30.5 as I had written. On the big news day, I read the responses. I am not very great on fundamentals. I got a feel by reading the posts that its not great. I play on technicals, trading patterns more, so I exited in early 80s. I am watching now from trading perspective. At this stage its still looking vulnerable - though some signs of bottoming. So watching every day, nearly every trade for some signs. No confirmation yet that we may have bottomed or of reversal, but it can happen, or would have already happened.
• General markets looking very good, so no fear from there I feel. Battery sector still iffy, so its individual risk/reward to play the sector

.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
.
.