Weekly Review REE Stocks - 4th Oct 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week no new additions, so my list contains 30 REE related stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 still doing great. Making new highs all the time. Did not make one this week, but was close. Still finished the week in green, just over 0.2% gain. Last week 5738, this week 5751. Still very bullish.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 19.21, last week at 16.96, so big rise this week, even crossed psychological number of 20 intra day, but finished just under 20 for the week to keep the bull hopes alive
- Sentiment Indicator still in Greed at 74, last week it was Greed at 63. So representing market sentiment correctly, above 75 is Extreme Greed, and when it reaches early 80s, usually we top and then market eases a bit, for those who like patterns
- Bitcoin is playing truant again, but has not lost the zone. Last week at 66k, retreated towards 60k, but it held, currently at 62k -- so unsure play, still on the bullish side though
- Russell 2000 still not doing great. In fact going backwards. We need it to outperform so that all risk-on assets do well, resources. commodities etc. It has been weakest indicator. This week, again weak. Finished at 2212, last week at 2224, so down 0.5% for the week - not good
- Yields increased, again, even with rate cuts, a big jump this week, at 3.98, last week at 3.75 - something does not look right, indications are that caution may be required
- Dollar Index too going up like Yields
- Gold down, Silver up, Oil up - Gold at 2673, last week 2680, Silver at 32.44, last week 31.92, lost, Oil back to 70s, big gain due to Middle East situation, at 74.45, last week at 68.64,
- So overall markets looking great, but couple of signs asking for caution. Last week I wrote I feel, its - "very positive". This week I feel - "be watchful"
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 after doing a new all time high this week, would be eyeing 6000 figure. It may happen, but not immediately though. October though has had some bad periods before, from a pattern perspective. Also volatility may be high for 2 reasons - Middle East situation and US elections. But overall economy is doing all right, so lets see.
- Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
- Economic data next week, CPI/PPI on Thursday and FOMC minutes. These will provide direction.
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for last few months months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. I had written we may do highs in September end/October start. CCJ reached 52 yesterday, a gain of over 50% in a month (it was 35 on September 6). So that has played out exactly as I thought. I am no Nostradamus. I have been writing about Uranium stocks for over 3 years. I do the numbers, weekly/yearly etc. This is the 4th year in a row that September has seen the highs in the Uranium sector. May not be scientific, but its a pattern. I follow patterns. They don't always work. But sometimes they do. The did this time. And I may have been lucky once again with my call. So will CCJ do a new high above 56.24 or do a back test of 45 - which one will happen first? I don't know. U sector is very bullish, Spot price stable. Sentiment good. So the rise can still happen. Only problem with a continuous rise is that if consolidation doesn't happen, when it comes back, it drops big. Its been rising for a month, most stocks have gained average 50% (some more, some less). I have taken some off the table. For 2 reasons. First i feel a consolidation/back test may happen, not sure but odds are even. Secondly Li sector started coming back. U sector had risen. So I thought, if Li sector does well, it may do better. There are lots of ifs, no guarantee. I will buy back U stocks I sold, I am not sure about the timing.
- Lithium Sector overview - Last week I wrote that Li sector has been giving positive signals for a few weeks, and many Li stocks were above 30% from their lows. We didn't build much this week, as it looked like consolidation was in play this week. But on Friday, US Li stocks had a big gain on the back of some news. US Li stocks I track gained 8% for the week. Last week they gained 15%. So back to back strong play. ALB has reached 102. I have been writing for several months that ALB has to get over 106 for confirmation of bottoming and reversal. Its close now, but not yet reached. Ganfeng has to get over 36. That too is close. So odds of a recovery have improved further this week. I track 90 ASX Li stocks in my weekly report. This is 4th week in a row we are in green. This hasn't happened in a very, very, very long time. So chances of further improvement have significantly increased. But it still needs to happen. Many such hopes in the last couple of years have been dashed, so it can happen again that we are not able to build and slowly drift down. Odds of going down is lower though. I am playing big in LI stocks currently. I was playing Uranium for last couple of months, they had a rise of around 50%, so have taken some off there and put into Li. First time in over 2 years I am having double digit Li stocks for weeks now. This week is crucial. Even if we don't gain, we can't afford to lose, small is ok but not big. So important week for Li punters coming up.
- REE Sector overview - REE sector too doing consolidation this week, mirroring Li sector play. But overall its a bit tentative, on the weaker side for now.
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Personally:
Things are same as last week for me. Was playing mostly Uranium stocks till 2 weeks back. Have taken some off the table and moved it to Li sector. Li stocks that I am playing are - (AZL/AGY/GL1/GLN/INR/LTR/PLL/PMT/SYA/WC8/WR1). I I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well.
This week was mostly rotation and trying to reduce average as the sector was in consolidation. Its not big, a bit risky as well, but this week overall I decreased average by around 5%, so sometimes it works, although this is not main play, its to keep me busy, like a game for me. Big gains are in holding for at least 30/50% in first instance and then evaluate. Mnay places I write, most people are long term, which in a bull market can be the best strategy. Reverse also true, if something goes bad, all profits go away. So its individual choice, risk/reward, timeframes etc.
Other plays - Main health stocks - DXB (26)/BOT (17)/PYC (7.5), Gold - PNR (5.2). I was writing I was looking at MEI/ENR for last few week, picked some more MEI this week at (avg 10.5) and ENR at (avg 41).
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week ENR had a consolidation play in early 40s. Volume usual. But something changed. For last several weeks, it was holding 40. First time in 2 months after reaching 90s, it went below 40 on Friday, so from a trading pattern perspective, not a great look. Needs to hold 40, otherwise could easily slip to early 30s.
- From a weekly perspective, a drop, moved from 46 to 40, a loss, but still in the same zone, but looking vulnerable now
- I mentioned I was watching both MEI/ENR for last few weeks. Last week I picked up both - MEI at 11, ENR at 42 - a small play. I wrote I amy add, its still not a very big play, but bought more, MEI now avg 10.5, and ENR 41 - so down on both for now
- REE stocks that I track gained 1% for the week, so a consolidation week, mirroring Li sector play
- REE stocks down 9% for the year,
- General markets looking very good, so no fear from there I feel. Li sector considerable improvement, so lets hope some good times to come
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)