Weekly Review REE Stocks - 25th Oct 2024Here is the weekly...

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 25th Oct 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week no new additions, so my list contains 30 REE related stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 after a big rise last few months seems to be in consolidation mode. But still very strong. Finished the week at 5808, last week 5864, so down around 1% for the week. But considering the all time high is just over 1% away, its still a good place to be.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 20.33, last week 18.03, so has lost 20 for now, but still within margin. Rose sharply on Friday.
• Sentiment Indicator still in Greed at 59, last week it was Greed at 75. So representing market sentiment, Greed but declining now observing the consolidation happening.
• Bitcoin still trying to figure out the last leg for it to make a new all time high, within range, still in hunt, currently at 67k, last week was 68k
• Russell 2000 still not doing great. Last week it looked like it will make some amends, tried a bit, but gave it and a bit more this week. Down nearly 3% for the week, finished at 2207, last week 2276. No wonder risk-on assets, commodities, resources are struggling.
• Yields increased, again, even with rate cuts, a big jump this week, after big jump last week, at 4.23 now, last week at 4.07 - something does not look right with Bonds and Stocks play. Many are thinking something different may happen, like stock market will not do well. Maybe a hedge, or maybe they are right.
• Dollar Index too going up like Yields
• Gold up, Silver same, Oil up - Gold at 2760, last week 2736, Silver at 33.88, last week 33.92, Oil at 71.69, last week 69.34
• So overall markets looking great, but couple of signs asking for caution. Looks to be in consolidation mode now. So same as 2 weeks back, I feel - "be watchful"

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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:

• SP 500 in consolidation mode. 6000 is the next target, but with Middle East situation and US election, it may have to wait for another week I feel .
• Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. But catching up now. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
• Economic data next week - PCE and Non-farm Payrolls - both can provide direction. The Earnings are driving the market in short term, with tech stocks still leading the way
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• Uranium Sector overview - After doing a high last week at 58.65, did another high on Monday at 58.72. But that was the only good part of the week. All 5 days it was red. A very rare occurrence that all 5 days of the week is red. So what is happening? CCJ had a good rise from 35 to 58, I feel its consolidating, testing the waters to see if it has support to go higher. But there is danger. Previous times when it has dropped over 10%, it has not ended well. The big drop in July to 35 was another instance. It has not yet dropped 10%, but very close, over 9%, so at a very critical juncture. Next week is important. I feel it may define short to medium play leading up to January. Will it go below 52, and test 45, or will 52 hold and it is back on track for another high? Best not to assume anything but follow price action. U macro still very strong. Spot price is not helping to give momentum. After reaching 106 in January, last several months it is just around 80/85 range. One would have thought that with so much of good news recently, at least it would be 90s, marching towards 100. So its clear, there are other sentiments and other factors in play. Till CCJ holds 10% drop, I will be very positive. If its breached, I feel then it has to be very carefully watched. U stocks are very volatile, can gain 100% and then give it all away, in matter of months, so except those very long term, best to see what happens and then react.
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• Lithium Sector overview - Last 2 weeks, looked like confusion and uncertainty of what's going to happen for the sector. This week, that feeling has not gone away completely, but we had a positive week overall. Chinese Li stocks did very well rising 10% for the week. US and ASX Li stocks flat to slight gain. Previously when US and ASX Li stocks were rising, Chinese were lagging behind. Then they caught up. Now US and ASX Li stocks are holding the level, but Chinese have taken the lead. A good sign, there is hope that if this pattern continues, ALB may catch up soon. First it needs to get to the 102 level, but more importantly above 106. Ganfeng is around 34, it needs to get over 37. Both these numbers are important, firstly because they represent the big support they held while coming down. So may form a resistance going up. So would be good to get over them. Also both these numbers will represent around 50% increase from their lows. That level of increase gives confidence that we are no longer playing to make a new low, but our direction is different. So lets see how it plays out this week.
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• REE Sector overview - REE sector too doing consolidation this week, mirroring Li sector play. But overall its a bit tentative, on the weaker side for now

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Personally:
Last week, from a sector play perspective, I was mostly into U sector and small holding across 3 Li stocks. This week I have rotated, and am now two-thirds U and one-third Li.

Other usual plays which I have been writing for quite sometime.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week ENR had a consolidation play in early to mid 30s. Volume usual. Overall its playing weak. Back to old play in 20s/30s. who would have known that we had reached 90s shortly back?
• From a weekly perspective, moved from 36 to 33. Looking weak. Needs to hold 30 even on a bad play
• Last week I wrote my average was 37. Earlier I had sold at early 80s as I wrote before, my buy average was 30.5, so that was a good win, in fact, a very good win . that was really lucky, in hindsight. I had also written that I want 40 to hold. Its not holding. I was in 2 minds - exit or hold? . I decided to now play to reduce average till its above 30. This week no trades for me. But very watchful now.
• REE stocks that I track was flat for the week
• REE stocks up 4% for the year, but stats skewed by LRV play
• General markets looking very good, so no fear from there I feel. Li sector considerable improvement, so lets hope some good times to come

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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