Weekly Review REE Stocks - 1st Nov 2024Here is the weekly review...

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 1st Nov 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week no new additions, so my list contains 30 REE related stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 after a big rise last few months seems to be in consolidation mode. But still very strong. Finished the week at 5728, last week 5808, so down around 1.5% for the week. Last week lost 1%, so down 2 weeks but still in a great position.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 21.88, last week at 20.33, so above 20 for now for 2 weeks and reflecting the play of a drop in market,
• Sentiment Indicator in neutral at 49. So in two weeks from near Extreme Greed of 75 has come back to Neutral. Punters undecided.
• Bitcoin nearly made an all time high at 73k this week, I had been writing for sometime, it may happen soon. Eased a bit now to be at 69k. Next attempt may break thru that.
• Russell 2000 still not doing great, but did better than other indices this week. Remained flat at 2210, last week 2207. No wonder risk-on assets, commodities, resources are struggling.
• Yields increased, again, even with rate cuts, a big jump this week, after big jump last 2 weeks, at 4.36 now, last week at 4.23 - something does not look right with Bonds and Stocks play. Many are thinking something different may happen, like stock market will not do well. Maybe a hedge, or maybe they are right.
• Dollar Index too going up like Yields
• Gold down, Silver down, Oil down - Gold at 2745, last week 2760, Silver at 32.58, last week 33.88, Oil at 69.33, last week 71.69
• So overall markets looking great, but couple of signs asking for caution. Looks to be in consolidation mode now. So same as 2 weeks back, I feel - "be watchful"
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 after a big rise last few months seems to be in consolidation mode. But still very strong. Finished the week at 5728, last week 5808, so down around 1.5% for the week. Last week lost 1%, so down 2 weeks but still in a great position.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 21.88, last week at 20.33, so above 20 for now for 2 weeks and reflecting the play of a drop in market,
• Sentiment Indicator in neutral at 49. So in two weeks from near Extreme Greed of 75 has come back to Neutral. Punters undecided.
• Bitcoin nearly made an all time high at 73k this week, I had been writing for sometime, it may happen soon. Eased a bit now to be at 69k. Next attempt may break thru that.
• Russell 2000 still not doing great, but did better than other indices this week. Remained flat at 2210, last week 2207. No wonder risk-on assets, commodities, resources are struggling.
• Yields increased, again, even with rate cuts, a big jump this week, after big jump last 2 weeks, at 4.36 now, last week at 4.23 - something does not look right with Bonds and Stocks play. Many are thinking something different may happen, like stock market will not do well. Maybe a hedge, or maybe they are right.
• Dollar Index too going up like Yields
• Gold down, Silver down, Oil down - Gold at 2745, last week 2760, Silver at 32.58, last week 33.88, Oil at 69.33, last week 71.69
• So overall markets looking great, but couple of signs asking for caution. Looks to be in consolidation mode now. So same as 2 weeks back, I feel - "be watchful"
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  What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
  
  • SP 500 in consolidation mode. 6000 is the next target, but with Middle East situation and US election, it may have to wait. Also depends on how the market reacts to election results this week
  • Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. But catching up now. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
  • Economic data next week - Rate decision on Thursday can provide direction.
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  • Uranium Sector overview - After doing a high in last 2 weeks, CCJ is at 58.72, its in consolidation mode. Last week, all 5 days were red. This week 3 red and 2 green. Better than last week, but still in red. From a weekly perspective, CCJ dropped from 53.79 to 52.50, around 3%. Overall drop from high is around 10%. My theory is same as last week. Previous times when it has dropped over 10%, it has not ended well. The big drop in July to 35 was another instance. It is toying with that 10% level, just holding the 52 level. Next play is important. I feel it may define short to medium play leading up to January. Will it fail 52, and test 45, or will 52 hold and it is back on track for another high? Best not to assume anything but follow price action. U macro still very strong. Spot price is not helping to give momentum. After reaching 106 in January, last several months it is just around 80/85 range. This week lost the psychological 80 level. Last week at 81.05, this week at 78.75. So something not right. If CCJ 10% is breached, and with spot price going down, a drop towards 45 of 20% may be on the cards in the short term. U macro is still strong, but in U sector, sentiment and lot of other plays happen which make the sector very volatile, big gains and big drops. Something to look out for. .
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  • Lithium Sector overview - Last 3 weeks, Li sector looked very uncertain - undecide for the next move - up or down. Last week was slightly positive. This week too, the uncertainty factor is still strong, but slightly positive. ALB held the 92 and gained 5%, Ganfeng flat, Tianqi 1.5% down. So better, but not yet there. The testing time continues. Previously when US and ASX Li stocks were rising, Chinese were lagging behind. Last couple of week, US and ASX Li stocks are holding the level, but Chinese took the lead. This week Chinese held, many US and ASX Li stocks slightly up, with exception of LTR/SQM among big plays that were down. But overall still in front. So next week either US/ASX have to have a big one or the Chinese - if reversal is to happen. Lets see. ALB needs to get to the 102 level, but more importantly above 106, currently at 98. Ganfeng is around 34, it needs to get over 37. Both these numbers are important, firstly because they represent the big support they held while coming down. So may form a resistance going up. So would be good to get over them. Also both these numbers will represent around 50% increase from their lows. That level of increase gives confidence that we are no longer playing to make a new low, but our direction is different. So lets see how it plays out this week. As I have been writing, I feel the Phase 1 of 30 to 50% rise is done. The stage is being set for Phase 2 - if it were to happen.
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  • REE Sector overview - REE sector too doing consolidation this week, mirroring Li sector play. But overall its a bit tentative, on the weaker side for now
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Personally:
This week I am same as last week, two thirds Uranium and one-third Lithium - from a sector play. While both are trying to sort out the next leg/phase, playing small on the side trying to reduce average, or switching some stocks. Nothing major.

Other usual plays which I have been writing for quite sometime.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week ENR had a consolidation play in mid 30s, same as last week, but with even lower volume now. Overall its playing weak. Back to old play in 20s/30s. who would have known that we had reached 90s shortly back?
• From a weekly perspective, moved from 33 to 35.5. Looking weak. But now stabilising. Seems to be consolidating at this level. Needs to hold 30 even on a bad play
• Last week I wrote my average was 37. I wrote last week that till 30 is being held I will hold, but will try to reduce my average by playing some. I have got my average to 36, not much as not a lot of swing is happening, but keeps me busy and has small effect too.
• REE stocks that I track lost 2% for the week
• REE stocks up 3% for the year, but stats skewed by LRV play
• General markets looking very good, now consolidating, LI sector Phase 1 rise complete, now consolidating - we could mirror Li play, so watching that.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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