Weekly Review REE Stocks - 8th Nov 2024Here is the weekly review...

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 8th Nov 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week no new additions, so my list contains 30 REE related stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 is back now in its buoyant mode after few weeks of consolidation. I have been writing for several weeks now, that 6000 is in reach and may happen soon. It happened this week. SP 500 reached another ATH of 6012. SP 500 now closing on a record high of 5995, last week 5728, so nearly 5% rise for the week. As bullish as it can get.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 14.94, last week at 21.88, so staying above 20 for couple of weeks, its finally succumbed to the bull pressure. Strongly in bull territory now.
• Sentiment Indicator in at Greed at 61, last week neutral at 49. So it is also moving up, and having a volatile swing, last 4 weeks - Extreme Greed/Greed/Neutral/Greed
• Bitcoin which last week reached 73k but could not make a new all time high, no stopping this week. Its at 76k now, who knows 100k may be beckoning.
• Russell 2000 finally seems to have woken up from its slumber. A big rise this week, bodes well for risk-on assets, commodities, resource, LI/U/REE etc. Finished the week at 2399, last week 2210, nearly 9% gain for the week, made a new 52 week high at 2402. But more to be done here.
• Yields had been surging and had reached 4.4s, but has cooled down slightly, but not enough. Many thinking Trump policyt may increase inflation. Sitting at 4.3, last week at 4.36.
• Dollar Index too going up like Yields after Trump win, cooled down little bit now
• Gold down, Silver down, Oil up - Gold at 2691, last week 2745, Silver at 31.42, last week 32.58, Oil at 70.43,, last week 69.33
• So overall markets looking great, caution has been thrown to the wind. Looks to be in good state now, I feel - "bullish"
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.What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:

• SP 500 in bullish mode, has reached its target of 6000, now in uncertain territory, will it keep rising or take a breather? Could depend on general mood around Trump's action in short term, so lets see
• Russell 2000 did great this week. We want to see this build up. Any fallback will not be good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen. But real hope now.
• Economic data next week - CPI/PPI on Wednesday/Thursday, that may provide direction
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• Uranium Sector overview - CCJ in consolidation mode. I feel its very simple from here. If it loses the 50/52 level, 45 will come into play. Most U stocks will lose another 10 to 20% in that case. If it holds here and gets towards 58, most U stocks will gain 10/20%. If CCJ does the move which I think is beckoning, and moves between 65 to 70, most U stocks will at least do a gain of 30 to 50%. So lot driving on CCJ I feel. Also on Spot price, which has reached dangerous levels. At 76 now, nearly 30% down from January high. It just shows what I have been saying for last few years - The supply/demand on U is not known, its a black box. Most punters screaming that we Supply squeeze is coming soon. Most X posters screaming taht we will see monster rises in the sector because of Supply squeeze. And, what are the utility guys, who actually use Uranium doing? Sitting in a pub, smoking cigar, and discussing football. What Supply squeeze? So there is a disconnect, whether we want to accept it or not. And that could drive SP in short to medium term. Best to be have an open mind.
• Lithium Sector overview - Last 1 month I have been saying, Li sector looked very uncertain - still there this week. Phase 1 is complete. Bottom early September. Most stocks rising 30 to 50% from there. Phase 2 - another 30 to 50% rise, is in question. There are mixed signals at this stage. Chines stocks are doing well. ALB still doing all right. But many other US and Li stocks not so great. This week LTR/PLS/ALB stayed in green where other stocks finished in red. This is not unusual. When the sector rises, its led by big stocks. They make the first gains. Others follow. So at this stage, based on that theory, we may be doing all right. But as I have said multiple, ALB has to stay above 106, Ganfeng above 37. Couple of weeks of that, and most Li stocks would have gained another 30 to 50% - Phase 2 jump. It has not yet happened. There have been attempts, but not successful. Sellers keep coming back at those levels. So a big hurdle, an important one. We don't know what's going to happen. Its difficult to say. Best to have an open mind. Follow price action. But be ready to capitalise if it does happen. I am in that camp, not sure, but preparing.
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• REE Sector overview - REE sector too doing consolidation this week, mirroring Li sector play. But overall its a bit tentative, on the weaker side for now

...Personally:
This week I am same as last 2 weeks, two thirds Uranium and one-third Lithium - from a sector play. While both are trying to sort out the next leg/phase, playing small on the side trying to reduce average, or switching some stocks. Nothing major.

Other usual plays which I have been writing for quite sometime. Have hedged to some other stocks while U/Li sort themselves out...Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week ENR had a consolidation play in mid 30s, same as last week, on average volume. Clearly consolidation. playing very narrow now, whole week between 34 and 36.5. No direction for now. .
• From a weekly perspective, stayed flat on 35.5. But now stabilising. Seems to be consolidating at this level. Needs to hold 30 even on a bad play
• Last week I wrote my average was 36. I wrote last week that till 30 is being held I will hold, but will try to reduce my average by playing some. This week it played in narrow range, so no trades for me, still at 36.
• REE stocks that I track gained 1% for the week
• REE stocks flat for the year
• General markets looking very good, now in bullish phase, LI sector Phase 1 rise complete, now consolidating - we could mirror Li play, so watching that.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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