HZN (ASX) Enterprise Value/brl 2P reserves

Originally posted by arsenic ↑

With my comment and a little EI, I have probably become the most accessable target of those who seek redress for the share price fall. I will provide these comments to the extent that the query for my perspective was genuine.

I am terrible at typing and with no autocorrect or highlighting of spelling and syntax errors I am comfortable with errors going through. The sobriquet arsenic implies I try not to take myself too seriously.

With the rescheduling of debt, I expect cash flow and debt are sufficiently in hand to stave of receivership and or a heavily discounted equity raising at these levels.

I think the salary for payment for the CEO is high but I think the same for all mining industry “professionals”. This is because return on equity has generally been poor and correlated largely with commodity prices which were boosted by China’s sudden emergence.

With that backdrop I do not begrudge Brent Emmett’s salary because I know that when HZN fell to less than 10c some years ago. The directors including Brent Emmett exercised Options at above the market price to get the compony trough. I have never seen this done before or since.

I think the company has done an excellent job proving up 2P and 3P gas and oil resources.

When I spoke to analysts to ask what they thought of Bent Emmett. They said he is a good focussed executive but they thought be pushed HZN’s case too hard. I can’t fault him for that.

Separately I believe Peter Strachan is as good as we are going to see from an accessible analyst on Aust. on O&G. (Charlie Aitken is better.)

I thought it was a good deal to get a contingent payment from the Japanese purchaser of gas assets in PNG even though it was contingent on LNG production.

I think we will get to LNG production via T3 of PNG LNG and get our funds $106m.

In a MSc. Mineral Economics lecture I asked Dr. Peter Moore thought of the potential for a gas pipeline via a Talisman syndicate being developed. He said the other pipeline to PNG LNG was the only one likely. I.e. the Talisman one wasn’t likely.

I think negotiations are at a delicate stage and need to run their course with Santos before HZN. HZN will then either get a share in T3 or cash or get taken over.

If we monetise the Gas Brent Emmett will have sufficiently earned his money for me not to quibble.

I watched all the development of OSH’s T1 and think HZN is modelled on it. My larger stake in HZN (even at these prices) rather OSH was predicated on my taking the bigger risk to attempt get the bigger return.

I have also bought a stake in OSH. I topped up on HZN at around these prices post the announcement of refinancing. I am a long term holder around eight years as a guess.

Importantly I am sufficiently diversified in my resource investment to not let HZN be a determining factor in my Investment success. I.e. I feel the pain but am prepared to wait.

In summary I believe in management and we have the asset. They haven’t waivered we shouldn’t.

Expand

Thanks arsenic for detailing why many of us hold shares in the company. There have been some notable achievements but I don't agree with your comments on Brent Emmett's salary. I'm not sure how anyone 'earns' $US 1.7 million PA, for many Australians that's the savings from a lifetime of work and just a dream for many others. You say that if the company monetises Stanley he will have earned his money, but endeavours to do that have been going on for a least 5 years so he's already banked multiple life savings on the commitment. I worry that management are too comfortable, doing very nicely while waiting and not keen enough/ incentivised to focus on growing share holder value.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	90950	18.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

90950

18.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
19.0¢	462009	8

Price($)

Vol.

No.

19.0¢

462009

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	90950	0.180
5	629491	0.175
32	1524113	0.170
26	2011650	0.165
43	1823158	0.160

No.

Vol.

Price($)

90950

0.180

629491

0.175

1524113

0.170

2011650

0.165

1823158

0.160

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.190	462009	8
0.195	299408	2
0.200	212000	3
0.210	47500	1
0.220	77600	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.190

462009

0.195

299408

0.200

212000

0.210

47500

0.220

77600

(20min delay)
Last 18.5¢		Change 0.010(5.71%)		Mkt cap ! $300.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
17.5¢	18.5¢	17.5¢	$611.4K	3.346M

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