Polls are not to be trusted of course and even though the pollsters in the article below got Brexit correct and 2016 correct it doesn't make me any more trusting of forecasts. However, what struck me the most is the figures below (and this is why I have gone back to the thread I started on this subject of Enthusiasm).
I said at the start of this thread it showed in the primaries that Biden just doesn't enthuse people like Bernie does or how Trump does, in this survey they compare Trump to Biden. This will affect how many people vote and I am tipping a very low Democrat turn-out. Here are the figures that most struck me:
Enthusiasm Gap? Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?” Trump voters = 83% Biden voters = 49%
Love Gap Furthermore, I've talked about how much love motivates versus how much hate motivates. Even though millions of Democrats (and Hotcopper posters) hate Trump, not enough of them love Biden. This also affects how many people actually vote. Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?” Trump voters: positive vote = 86%; negative vote = 14% Biden voters: positive vote = 41%; negative vote = 59%
Change Vote Gap Whilst the vast majority of voters have already decided how they will vote, a small number say they may still change their minds. Unfortunately for Biden more than three times as many Biden voters say they may still change their minds.
Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?” Trump voters: Yes = 2% Biden voters: Yes = 7%
Why All the Other Polls Then? So why do so many of the polls show a Biden lead? (just like they did a Clinton lead)
Questions to All VotersQ “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?” Trump voters: Yes = 22% Biden voters: Yes = 87%
Couple all this with the Democrats very recent (and very, very late) complete about-face on grass-roots door-knocking in the Battleground states (very embarrassing for them and clearly in response to terrible internal polling) and you can see why Trump is going to romp home.
