There's a lot of discussion on here about entry point, so I...

There's a lot of discussion on here about entry point, so I thought I'd share my thought process. There is a risk in using either technicals or valuation multiples to decide your entry point.

Fundamentally, 3DP seems to have proven its use case in utilities, so SP will likely be newsflow driven. They appear confident of getting incremental contract packages from FPL, so use case is proven. As other utilities convert from trial to contract, we could see a very rapid growth in ARR. Valuation on a multiple of current ARR is steep, but quickly comes into range with new contracts.

So the analysis I did was, what's my value at risk of overpaying ($300m cap) for a firm that on fair value might be only worth $50-100m, versus the cost of regret if it scales rapidly to become a firm worth $0.5-1.0bn over 2-3 years?

As I don't like missing that kind of opportunity, I have invested 33% of my planned allocation at SP $0.455. Will add another tranche if there is a general tech pull back, and will also add on newsflow, recognising that SP would advance quickly in that case.

I've found that it is a fool's game to try and pick the right entry price on a stock that could pop. While we all love to be one of those smart/lucky investors that got in at $0.05, it is important not to anchor your thinking on history.

3DP is still in the speculative part of my overall portfolio, i.e., a very small % allocation of overall capital.