Well graham you certainly are negative about this stock. Over the weekend I reviewed all their past history (as far back as I could go 1998 and charts earlier) and when PSA have been on the rise there aren't too many "66% of the rise" retracements (well none actually).
Your good self and stocktracker caused me to dump more than half my holding at around 40c but after mulling the whole thing over I have for better or worse bought them nearly all back again at 34 - 34.5 and I feel pretty comfortable with that.
After looking at how the market valued them before and their previous track record (over 90% success rate) even the worst case scenarios painted by yourself and stocktracker seem in the end more than justify the current price.
What killed them before seems to have been a combination of a rare couple of dry wells at the same time as the 1999 collapse in prices while carrying a stupendous A$250m borrowings in trying to grow too fast. I doubt they will go down that path again, current debt is nil and the numbers add up.
I don't reckon they will come back to 30c - will buy more if thay do.
pj
PSA Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held